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Geopolitical tensions shape the future of our oceans

The urgency of stopping the degradation of the oceans and the unlocking of the promise of a sustainable blue economy has never been greater. However, while the third conference of the United Nations Ocean from June 9 to 13 in Nice, France, this mission takes place in a backdrop of increasing geopolitical tension: high power rivalries, trade disputes and a global order based on frightening rules regularly erode confidence and essential institutions for real collaboration.

The very notion of shared destiny and collective objectives is discolored. The American administration even said that it “rejects and denounces” the United Nations sustainable development objectives – among them, “Objective 14: life underwater”, which constitutes the foundation of these conferences and other global efforts aimed at preserving and using the ocean in a sustainable manner. But the issues extend far beyond marine ecosystems. What takes place in the ocean will shape the future of life on earth.

The ocean is the largest world commons in humanity and the foundation of life on earth. It is a single and interconnected body of water, because the saying often says, “transport wealth and resources, pollution and problems, from one ocean to another”. The blue economy should grow faster than world GDP in the coming decades. For the future, the ocean must become even more central to build a better life for more people.

Provide clean, reliable and affordable energy to industries, nations and communities, offshore wind farms, floating solar parks and kinetic energy harvested from waves, currents and tides must form a major part of the solution. An international merchant fleet with low and zero emission is crucial to guarantee the continuous flow of maritime trade which underlies the world trade and ensures the movement of food and energy around the world. To expand total food production and strengthen the resilience of global supply chains, the replenishment of sustainable aquaculture and the guarantee of international management responsible for wildfish stocks will be essential. These efforts will also facilitate pressure on land ecosystems and reduce the consumption of fresh and rare water resources.

In addition, a clean, healthy and productive ocean is at the heart of the fight against climate change. It is estimated that marine solutions based on nature and maritime industries would offer up to a third of the programs necessary to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement.

Find out more: Fishermen’s communities in the Philippines are fighting for their future as waters increase

Unlocking this immense potential requires high ambition and renewed global cooperation. There was, encouraging, signs of progress. The global framework for Kunming -Montreal biodiversity – adopted in 2022 in order to overthrow the loss of nature by 2030 – and current negotiations under the international maritime organization to decarbonize shipping provide reasons of optimism. However, as I explore it in my recently published book, The ocean: how he formed our world and will shape our destinyToday’s geopolitical currents shoot in the opposite direction. The great powers run inward and one against the other, while protectionism, populism and divisor nationalism are increasing. In this turbulent landscape, the ocean – a driver and a world affairs theater – is again at the center.

All over the world, powerful nations – and many smaller – widen naval capacities and strengthen coastal defenses. These movements aim to protect the coasts, to secure maritime commercial roads, to assert oceanic demands and to strengthen global influence. While land resources decrease, competition for fish stocks, minerals from the seabed and other marine resources is intensifying.

This maritime tension is still fueled by the world’s exchange centers of the demographic, economic and diplomatic gravity of the world-from the northwest to the southeast hemisphere. Unlike other continents, which are landscapes surrounded by ocean, Southeast Asia is a “marine landscape” – an ocean enclosed by land. This single geography strengthens both the need for cooperation and the risk of conflict on marine spaces.

Like the other parts of the world order based on rules are under pressure, the United Nations Convention on the Act of the Sea – the so -called Ocean Constitution is also. The United States has unilaterally expanded its continental plateau, approved the exploitation of the deep sea in national and international waters without waiting for global rules and has left negotiations to limit shipping emissions. Meanwhile, China continues to reject the permanent decision of the 2016 Court of Arbitration in the disputed territories of the Southern China Sea, citing “historical rights” to assert its allegations.

To achieve a significant result at the United Nations Conference in Nice, the international community must rally in a spirit of solidarity and shared goal. However, the prevailing winds are those of geopolitical rivalry and division, transforming our greatest common world goods into an increasingly disputed and perilous field. This is a course that we just can’t afford. The cost of opportunity – in terms of sustainable growth, prosperity and planetary stability – is immense. If there was a time for daring and responsible action, it is now. The moment requires real ocean leadership: visionary, inclusive and resolved. Without a clean, healthy and productive ocean, our collective future is in danger.

Sturla Henriksen is a special advisor, Ocean, to the Global Compact, co -president of the G20 Ocean Group under the chairmanship of South Africa, and author of The ocean: how he formed our world and will shape our destiny (Hero / Legend Times Group, United Kingdom, 2025). The points of view expressed his, not no organization.

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