Forest fires become more deadly and cost more. Experts warn that they become unstoppable | Forest fire

Forest fires crossed the center of Chile last year, killing 133 people. In California, 18,000 buildings were destroyed in 2018, causing $ 16 billion (24 billion dollars, 12 billion pounds sterling). Portugal, Greece, Algeria and Australia have all felt sorrow and economic pain in recent years.

As a big titles, death tolls and losses of $ 1 billion in forest fires have stacked in the world, the same goes for the increase in temperatures – supplied by the climate crisis – which create Tinderbox conditions.

For the first time, scientists say that they have shown without ambiguity that the number of “socially disastrous” forest fires – those who reach harsh economies and who take lives – have increased in the world as global heating bites.

“We are witnessing a fundamental change in the impact of forest fires,” said the Australian scientist, Dr. Calum Cunningham, who led research published in the journal Science. “Climate change opens the way to these disasters.”

Looking at the 200 most expensive fires between 1980 and 2023 – taken from a private database maintained by the world reinsurer Munich Re – The trends were clear.

Of the 200 most damaging fires since 1980 – that is, fires with the highest direct costs compared to the GDP of each country – 43% have occurred in the past 10 years.

Half of the fires that cost $ 1 billion or more have also taken place over the past 10 years. During the 44 years analyzed, the frequency of fires causing 10 or more deaths tripled while the population has only increased by 1.8 times.

Temperatures and drought of the atmosphere and vegetation – all factors promoting fires – all woven between 1980 and 2023.

Half of the forest fires occurred while local weather conditions were in the worst 0.1% recorded for the danger of fires.

Disturbing regularity

Many studies have revealed that the weather conditions that promote fires around the world get worse and occur more often, due to global heating.

But the latest major study that examined the world’s price of these forest fires and the deaths linked there were in 2016 on a global scale and found no trend.

Since then, the period had been “punctuated by major fire disasters with worrying regularity,” said the authors.

“We went to seek this study showing that things got worse. We intuitively felt that they were, but there was no research,” said Cunningham, the University of Tasmania fire center.

“The skeptics of the climate have seized this gap, so we hope that it is in bed the idea that it does not worsen. Things get worse.

“It is unambiguous and it is clear that climate change plays a role. It is not only fires, it is fires in increasingly extreme weather conditions that make them unstoppable.”

He said the results indicate the need to quickly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but also to better manage forests close to the populations. The public could help by doing the maintenance to prevent the embers from entering buildings and cleaning fuels such as leaves.

Other uninformed influences that can contribute to the trend of worsening included the number of people living near forests and the abandonment of agricultural areas.

The authors said that the trends came despite the “hot air balloon expenses on the abolition of fires” – American federal expenses for the abolition of fire, for example, more than tripled between 1985 and 2022.

“This limit expenditure (or mask) the fire crisis, but not to compensate it,” they wrote.

The number of fire deaths was probably a gross underestimation. A database recorded 19 direct deaths from fires in Indonesia in 2015, but the resulting air pollution was involved in around 100,000 premature deaths of respiratory problems.

Roadmap to a catastrophic disaster

When the researchers examined the high -risk areas of fires close to the populations, they found this fatal combination of 10% of the planet’s land area.

These areas included fires in January in Los Angeles, with direct losses estimated at 65 billion US dollars – “probably the most expensive fire disaster in history” – and 2024 fires in Valparaíso, Chile, which made 135 lives.

These two disasters occurred once the data analysis is completed, suggesting that the methods have been able to predict the places at risk.

“This provides a roadmap for where the next catastrophic disasters are the most likely to occur,” said Bowman.

Dr. Hamish Clarke, a fire and climate change expert at Melbourne University that is not involved in the study, said: “This is a new important article that puts a difficult number on a very discussed subject – global trends and socially and economically damaging fire engines.

“Unfortunately, the news is not good – fires kill more people and impose more costs on the savings around the world.”