Russia in the Arctic is a “serious concern” for NATO, said the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iceland, while Moscow forges in advance its military accumulation and its economic plans for one of the most austere but strategically important regions.
“The Arctic remains at the heart of the strategic calculation of Russia, and its activities in the region go far beyond the defensive measures,” said þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir Nowsweek. “The military posture of Russia in the Arctic is very worrying.”
Nowsweek contacted the Russian Defense Ministry to comment.
Russia has taken care of its military bases for the Soviet era in the Arctic for years of reopening years and to build new facilities across the region. Moscow has strongly invested in its northern fleet based in the Murmansk region, which borders NATO members in Finland and Norway.
Pavel Lvov / Sputnik via AP
Several major military sites, including those which house many submarines with nuclear arms in Russia, are grouped in the Arctic cities of Murmansk and Severomorsk. Despite the toll of three and a half years of large -scale war in Ukraine took the land forces of Russia, the Arctic capacities of Moscow are largely intact.
The Arctic is the region of the world most affected by climate change, the melting ice opening new roads for military and civil traffic, in particular by reducing the short trade of Asia in the Atlantic.
“This has implications for NATO and Russia, because the operational environment becomes more dynamic and disputed,” said Gunnarsdóttir.
Russia, control of more than half of the Arctic coast, considers climate change as an opportunity to extract resources and real threat to its security, say analysts and officials of NATO countries.
“As an Arctic Nation, this new reality must be considered appropriately and addressed,” said Gunnarsdóttir. “NATO responded decisively to these developments.”
NATO has written its Arctic presence in recent years, in particular by strongly investing in anti-submarine warfare capacities (ASW). But the submarines of Russia are notoriously difficult to keep a trace, and it is often recognized that NATO is not yet quite there with the implementation of its Asw.
And Moscow is simply more used to operating under the arctic hard conditions, according to observers in the region. Russia’s ice breakers are far more numerous than those who belong to any other nation, and observers emphasize the country’s historical pride to be able to comfortably operate in some of the most extreme conditions.
Cooperation suspension
Seven other states, including Canada, the United States and Norway, all members of NATO, have a territory in the Arctic Circle. Finland and Sweden joining the alliance after Russia has invaded Ukraine in 2022 increased the Arctic presence of NATO.
All the States of the Arctic – including Russia – are part of the Arctic Council. The Council has no military discount, but focuses more on other regional issues such as global warming and pollution.
But even the Arctic Council is not exempt from the reverberations of the war in Eastern Europe and the impact of the pariah status that Russia has acquired from the Western countries in recent years.
Political cooperation in the eight arctic states was suspended in 2022, although scientific collaboration and virtual meetings are now occurring, according to the Council.
Denmark succeeded Norway as president of the Arctic Council in May this year. Russia had directed the collective when its tanks went to Ukraine at the beginning of 2022, and said that it wanted the normal functioning of the council to resume.
“We cannot hide the fact that we do not have a normal Modus Operandi,” said Torsten Kjølby Nielsen, head of the Arctic of the Kingdom of Denmark.
“After the large-scale invasion of Ukraine, we have no full cooperation and, of course, this has consequences,” he said Nowsweek.
Nielsen refused to offer details on the type of discussion exactly with Russia, but said that the Kingdom’s Arctic officials were still in contact directly with Moscow.
But data flows between Arctic members have been strongly affected, which makes the work of thousands of scientists focused on the region more difficult, said ambassador Kenneth Høegh, president of senior Arctic officials. There are much fewer scientific projects that occur now than before, Nielsen said.
“Efficiency is not what it should be,” said Høegh Nowsweek. But what is happening in Canada has an influence in Greenland, [and] What’s going on in Russia-Siberia-has an influence in Alaska, “he said.” We need data from the whole region. “”
NATO, Russia and China
Scientists look at the north, but economists, businesses and the armed forces are also. Russia sees the Arctic, now reveals resources previously more difficult to access, as an essential element of its economic strategy, according to experts.
Over the past 10 years, the emphasis put by Russia on the Arctic has been fueled by “belief that a large part of the economic resources on which Russia depends is in the Arctic”, from hydrocarbons to peaches, said Dmitry Gorenburg, a researcher-research research and non-profit research analysis in the United States.
The continental plateau of the Arctic of Russia contains more than 85 billions of cubic meters of natural gas and 17 billion metric tonnes of oil, said Russian state media in 2022. Other figures have put the number at 13 billion metric tonnes of oil.
In addition to this is the way to the North Sea, an expedition route hooking up the Russian coast in the Arctic which connects the oceans of the Pacific and the Atlantic, cut transit times and helps hydrocarbons in Moscow to key markets, including in Asia. Climate change makes the route – which Russia considers as largely in its sphere and hopes to develop – more accessible.
China is one of the main users of the North Sea Route, although its attention was not necessary by welcome by Russia at the start, said Katarzyna Zysk, professor of international relations and contemporary history at the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies (IFS).
Beijing was accepted as an observer at the Arctic Council in 2013 and qualified as a “close to the Arctic” state.
But China and Russia have come closer in recent years, and just before Moscow invades Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese chief Xi Jinping have signed a “limitless” strategic partnership.
Under the previous administration of Biden, the United States declared in mid-2010 that it saw a “growing cooperation” between China and Russia in the Arctic, with Beijing now a “main donor of Russian energy in the Arctic, and increasingly military, Russia and China conducting joint exercises off the coast of Alaska.”
The American joint commander, Norad, said in July of last year that he had intercepted two Chinese bombers as well as two Russian planes near Alaska.
Beijing said it was “an important part of Arctic Affairs”.
“China’s growing interest in Arctic adds another layer of complexity,” said Gunnarsdóttir.
“Although it is not an Arctic State, China extends its presence through scientific, economic and strategic initiatives,” said the Icelandic minister. “All of this is a source of concern and underlines the need for vigilance and unity among the allies of NATO.”
Nowsweek contacted the Chinese embassy in Washington to comment.
At the military level, “Iceland has actively pleaded for narrower cooperation between the seven arctic allies,” added Gunnarsdóttir.
Waters close to Iceland, the United Kingdom and Greenland form what is generally nicknamed the Giuk gap, which naturally restricts Arctic Access to and from the North Atlantic. Being able to go through Giuk Gap is an important part of the underwater strategies of Russia.
“The Arctic is not a distant or isolated region – it is a central arena in world security,” said Gunnarsdóttir.
