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Tuesday’s match between Chelsea and Es Tunis will decide which team of the group D joins Flamengo in the round of 16.
Chelsea was the clear favorite to exceed the group before the tournament, but a surprising loss for Brazilians on Friday means that the Blues will need at least one point of the Tuesday match with ES Tunis to move forward.
Bookmakers do not think it will be a problem – Chelsea a -430 dimensions to win the game – but the stylistic match could make it more difficult than these dimensions do not suggest.
Chelsea against ES Tunis Parit seen
9 p.m. he, Dazn
It is difficult to judge the way this tournament opted for Chelsea.
It is one of the most difficult groups in the field, and the Blues have just finished an exhausting campaign in Europe at the end of May.
But it is still a little disappointing to see Chelsea in this position, especially since they were not convincing on the ground.
The blues scrambled the Lafc to the dust in a 2-0 victory in their opening match, but Flamengo exceeded Chelsea in the second half en route to a 3-1 victory.
Chelsea scored three goals out of 3.35 goals expected in their first two games, which is not terrible, but it is not going to play anyone either, since they were the favorites in the two inclinations.
One might think that the blues would have no problem finding their offensive mojo against ES Tunis, the Tunisian league champions, but the North Africans were surprisingly competent in this tournament.
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Not only did Tunis beat the LAFC on Friday, but they were competitive in a 2-0 defeat against Flamengo.
An early goal of Flamengo was sufficient to tilt the balance in their favor, but Es Tunis was still able to keep the match tight, allowing only three chances of clear score.
The defense made the difference against Lafc in a 1-0 victory in which they only granted three shots on the target and 1.25 goals expected.
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Chelsea against ES Tunis Parit seen
Do not make a bone on this: Es Tunis will sit deeply and dig for this match.
Tunisians know that they have to win the match to maintain their tournament, but their best chance of doing it is to put everyone behind the ball and try to catch Chelsea on a counterattack or capitalize on an error.
It will be in Chelsea, who has not really played the lights in this tournament, to unlock this defense.
The blues will probably come out from here with a victory, but it could take some time before hitting Paydirt.
The play: first half of less than 0.5 goals (+260, fanduel)
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Michael Leboff is a fan of the Icelanders who has been blowing for a long time, but a sports bettor for 10 years of experience in the game industry. He likes to use game theory to help bettors win support pools, find long strokes and learn to beat the market in consumer and niche sports.