Start them or sit them? Fantasy football start or seat decisions can be excruciating. While it feels good to make the right choice and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when someone barges into your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start With page? tool to evaluate fantasy football expert advice when making your roster decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for personalized tips, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at some polarizing players and advice from fantasy football expert Derek Brown. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football perspectives in this week’s Fantasy Football Primer.
Tips on Scheduling Fantasy Football Start’ems and Sit’ems
Start them
Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR)
Matthew Stafford is the QB15 in fantasy points per game with QB1 finishes in two of his last three games. He’s best seen as a QB2 this week with his receiving weapons damaged. Stafford has been up to the task this season, though. Among 41 qualified passers, Stafford ranks sixth in yards per attempt, third in passing touchdowns and passing yards per game, and second in hero throw rate. He faces a Jacksonville pass defense that leads the NFL in interceptions and has allowed the 11th-lowest CPOE, but they have also given up the tenth-most passing touchdowns (tied) and the 11th-most passing touchdown rate. Stafford should post solid numbers this week, but I don’t know if that will be enough to move into QB1 territory.
CJ Stroud (QB – HOU)
CJ Stroud only has one weekly QB1 finish this season. That’s when he demolished the Ravens’ pass-breaking pass defense before the pass as QB1 for the week. Stroud has not finished higher than QB15 in any other week. Among 41 qualified passers, he ranks 13th in yards per attempt and catchable target rate and 14th in highly accurate throw rate. He should be able to put up QB2 numbers this week against a Seattle pass defense that has allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game, tenth-most passing touchdowns and ranks 16th in CPOE.
Jordan Love (QB – GB)
Jordan Love is the QB13 in fantasy points per game with just one weekly QB1 finish this season (QB6). Love has been pretty good by throwback, but the problem is the Packers aren’t successful enough. He ranks 25th in dropbacks although he is also tenth in passing yards per game, third in yards per attempt, fifth in passer rating and eighth in hero throw rate. Love should post solid numbers again this week and possibly flirt with QB1 production against a pass defense that has allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game, ninth-most passing pass rate and ranks 18th in the CPOE.
Caleb Williams (QB – CHI)
Caleb Williams is the QB8 in fantasy points per game, with three games in the weekly top ten (QB9, QB1, QB10) and two games outside the top 15 fantasy quarterbacks in weekly scoring (QB20, QB24). Williams’ rushing score saved his fantasy day last week. Without it, he would have finished with 13.9 Fantasy points for the week. Among 41 qualified passers, Williams ranks 16th in yards per attempt, 34th in highly accurate throw rate, 37th in catchable target rate, and he has the third-highest off-target throw rate and 14th highest turnover-worthy throw rate. Williams’ fantasy production has been much better than his actual quarterback play. Rushing production and some great matchups have helped him this season. Look, look, Williams has another sweet match to exploit this week. He should post good QB1 numbers this week. New Orleans is clueless as a pass defense this season, giving up the eighth-most yards per attempt, second-most passing touchdowns, fourth-highest CPOE and seventh-highest pass completion rate.
Justin Fields (QB – NYJ)
There hasn’t been much in between for Justin Fields this season. Either he was amazing for fantastic purposes or he caused an abject disaster. Fields has two games against strong pass defenses with fewer than five fantasy points, but also this season he has three games with at least 25.9 fantasy points. Fields still offered plenty of weekly production, with his legs averaging 7.6 rushing attempts and 47 rushing yards with three rushing scores. Among 41 qualified passers, he ranks 28th in yards per attempt, 20th in highly accurate throw rate and 25th in catchable target rate. With Garrett Wilson out this week, Fields will have to rely on his legs to get the job done in Fantasy, which is easily possible. Carolina ranks 15th in yards per attempt and 19th in dropback success rate while giving up the tenth most passing touchdowns and ranking dead last in pressure rate. Fields should have clean pockets this week, which hasn’t been the case this season as he faces the second-highest pressure rate.
Sit’Em
Jaxson Dart (QB – NYG)
Since Week 4, Dart is the QB10 in fantasy points per game, averaging ten carries and 55.7 rushing yards per game. Among the 41 qualified quarterbacks, he ranks 37th in yards per attempt, 21st in highly accurate throw rate, fifth in catchable target rate and 17th in CPOE. He’ll need all the production with his legs that he can muster this week against an elite Denver pass defense. Dart will be under duress every time he returns to spend this week. Dart has the fourth highest pressure rate faced this season. Denver ranks ninth in blitz rate and first in pressure rate. Denver has allowed the fourth-fewest yards per attempt, the lowest completion rate per dropback and the second-fewest passing touchdowns. Dart is a QB2 this week.
Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC)
Trevor Lawrence is the QB21 in fantasy points per game with two QB1 weeks this season under his belt (QB12, QB5). His Week 5 performance with his legs was an outlier. This is the only game this season where Lawrence had more than 12 rushing yards, so don’t expect his rushing equity to enter into the equation most weeks. Among the 41 qualified quarterbacks, Lawrence ranks 18th in passing yards per game, 29th in yards per attempt, 27th in highly accurate throw rate and 28th in fantasy points per dropback. I don’t expect Lawrence to have a monster game in Week 7. He probably posts mid-range QB2 numbers this week. The Rams have held quarterbacks to the seventh lowest in yards per attempt and CPOE and the 11th lowest pass rate per dropback.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA)
Tua Tagovailoa is the QB24 in fantasy points per game with just one QB1 performance this season (QB9). Every other week, he finished QB17 or lower in weekly scoring. Tagovailoa remains a game manager for Miami, ranking 35th in aDOT (6.7). Among 41 qualified passers, he ranks 27th in yards per attempt, tenth in highly accurate throw rate and 19th in catchable target rate. Tagovailoa likely turns in another low-end QB2 performance this week against a pass defense that ranks 16th in yards per attempt and dropback success rate and has given up the seventh-most passing touchdowns and 13th-highest CPOE.
In-Depth Fantasy Football Games to Consider
Sam Darnold (QB – MER)
Sam Darnold may be the QB18 in fantasy points per game, but he has three QB1 outings in his last four games (QB10, QB2, QB9). Darnold has been quietly incredible in terms of running back this season. It was great to see. Darnold is first in yards per attempt, third in passer rating, ninth in highly accurate throw rate and third in hero throw rate. Houston fielded a solid pass defense, but Darnold played so well that I think he still posts solid QB2 numbers this week. Houston has allowed the fifth-fewest yards per attempt, the lowest passer rating and the sixth-lowest dropback success rate.
Concerning departures and players to disappear
Bo Nix (QB-DEN)
There’s no other way to say this, but Bo Nix has had a weekly seat on the struggle bus this season as QB19 in fantasy points per game. Among 41 qualified quarterbacks, he ranks 30th in yards per attempt, 27th in passer rating, 31st in highly accurate throw rate, 33rd in catchable target rate and he has the eighth-highest off-target rate. Nix could still have issues this week against what has been a revamped Giants pass defense. Since Week 4, this team has hurt opposing passers, allowing the 11th fewest yards per attempt, the seventh lowest passer rating and the ninth lowest pass rate per drop. During that span, the Giants also had the tenth-best pressure rate. Denver should lean on its ground game this week.
Daniel Jones (QB – IND)
Jones is the QB9 in fantasy points per game as he has enjoyed a renaissance as a passer this season. Yes, he’s averaging 12.7 rushing yards per game with four rushing scores, but his passing stats have been even more impressive. Among 41 qualified passers, Jones ranks fifth in yards per attempt, 11th in passing yards per game, third in highly accurate throw rate and sixth in catchable target rate. Jones will have a tough road ahead this week against the Bolts pass defense. The Chargers have allowed the third-fewest yards per attempt, the fourth-fewest passing yards per game and the second-fewest dropback completion rate. Indy should lean on its ground game this week.
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