California wildfires in January were intensified by climate change
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Famine, economic collapse, civil unrest and war are among the risks we face if we do not take decisive action to limit global warming and preserve nature, leading experts on climate, food, health and security warned in London today.
The National Emergency Briefing, an event organized by climate activists and researchers, was organized to persuade political leaders of the need for urgent and drastic action on the interconnected climate and biodiversity crises.
“I’m afraid for my own life and my future. And I’m absolutely terrified for my son’s. And you should be too,” said Hugh Montgomery of University College London, a doctor who has studied the health impacts of climate change.
“We are asking for a level of leadership worthy of a Second World War – leadership as if the survival of our society depends on it, because it does,” said Mike Berners-Lee of Lancaster University in the United Kingdom, who chaired the event.
Growing evidence shows the planet is warming faster than before, said Kevin Anderson of the University of Manchester in the United Kingdom. “There is now a small but very real risk that we could reach 4°C by the end of this century.”
“The prospects for 3 or 4°C of warming are absolutely dire. We absolutely cannot take that risk. This is an extreme and unstable climate far beyond any safe zone that has sustained our civilization,” Anderson said. “We’re going to see unprecedented societal and ecological collapse at these kinds of levels. We’re going to see escalating geopolitical instability and rising military tensions. And there will be no real economy to talk about. We will face systemic collapse.”
Anderson also warned of the danger of what he called “time-delayed technologies” that are “designed to maintain a thriving oil and gas industry.” They include hydrogen and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, he said.
Hayley Fowler, of the University of Newcastle in the United Kingdom, said the impacts of warming are already greater than expected. “Heatwaves in Europe are intensifying faster than anywhere else in the world – and much faster than climate models predict,” she said.
The UK could be hit by a storm that dumps up to 35 centimeters of water, causing massive flooding, as happened in Germany in 2021. “But like the Germans, we can’t imagine it until it happens,” Fowler said.
Countries are failing to prepare for these extreme weather conditions, she said. “We continue to build infrastructure that cannot withstand today’s climate, let alone tomorrow’s. »
Tim Lenton of the University of Exeter, UK, warned of the risk of triggering tipping points such as the closure of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC.
If the AMOC collapses, Arctic sea ice would extend to the North Sea during the winter, Lenton said. London would be frozen for three months of the year, with temperatures as low as -20°C (-4°F), but summers would be even hotter than today.
The UK would run out of water, Lenton said, and it would no longer be possible to grow food. Globally, the areas where wheat and corn could be grown would be reduced by more than half. “So this is a global food security crisis.”
Food production is already being hit, said Paul Behrens of Oxford University. “Britain has had three of the five worst grain harvests on record this decade. »
Things could get so bad that it leads to civil unrest, Behrens said. “We face a choice. We can continue with business as usual, watching our food systems collapse, and then prepare for political and civil unrest. Or we can act now.”
Richard Nugee, a former British Army lieutenant general and national climate and security adviser, warned of risks to national security. “What concerns me most is not a single crisis. It’s crises that cascade one after the other. Multiple crises, food, health, infrastructure, migration, energy, extreme weather, etc., all hitting at the same time, eroding trust in government through slow or ineffective responses, and a reactionary policy claiming to be able to solve all of these crises at once.”
“We need to realistically plan for a future that others cannot see or are unwilling to imagine. A future that would have incalculable consequences if it came to pass. And just because you don’t like risk doesn’t mean it will go away or can be ignored,” Nugee said.
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