Eli Lilly’s income arrives on Thursday. What the best analysts expect
Many of Wall Street expect that the loss of Novo Nordisk was the gain of Eli Lilly, and this will be good news for the second quarter results of the manufacturer Zepbound. Novo Nordisk’s actions have counted around 47% since the start of the year, while doubts have emerged on the prospects of its GLP-1, Ozempic drugs for diabetes and Wegovy for obesity. The company said its activities had been injured by competition from aggravated pharmacies, which make direct elimination versions of its semaglutide, the active ingredient of the two brands. This prompted Novo to reduce its annual forecasts and oust its CEO. Lilly’s activities seem to be much better, according to analysts. They provide that the evidence will be in the results and quarterly perspectives. In addition, several analysts expect other catalysts, including new generation drugs, help propel higher Lilly shares. “Potential materiality” so far this year, Lilly’s stock has dropped around 3%, underperforming the market. However, catalysts could arrive as soon as Thursday, according to analysts. “We note that the next call at 2q from Lly is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. on August 7, such as the company’s standard time slot at 10 a.m. for profits after market opening, suggesting potential materiality via the results of Topline tests in parallel with profits,” wrote Goldman Sachs Analyst Asad Haider in a search note on July 28. He said the report is “the most awaited short -term event” in its pharmaceutical coverage. In addition to financial prospects, investors are impatient to find out more about Orforglipron, the company’s experimental GLP-1 pill. In June, at the American Diabetes Association’s conference, Lilly revealed that the medication helped patients with type 2 diabetes in a trial at an advanced stage lost weight without serious side effects. Reading phase 3 data for obesity patients should be published soon. Wegovy analysts “favorite status” are also impatient to hear management’s reflections on CVS Health policy to give Wegovy’s favored status on the Zepbound of Lilly. The policy has entered into force in July and means that the CVS Health pharmacy service manager, Caremark, will favor Wegovy on his list of covered medicines. It has the potential to be a headwind for Lilly. However, patients can request exemptions and stay on the weight loss medication or pay their pockets by themselves or via Lilly Direct, the Society website with direct consumption. In addition, there is the possibility that Lilly will conclude an agreement and will return to the list of covered CVS Caremark drugs, analysts said. According to Bernstein analyst, Courtney Breen, the first weeks of the switch showed that patients spending from Zepbound to Wegovy were overshadowed by the number of patients starting the drug with a new prescription. On average, analysts interviewed by LSEG expect Lilly to earn $ 5.57 per second quarter in revenue of $ 14.71 billion. If Lilly strikes this income estimate, she will have achieved growth of 30% from one year to the next. Here is what they say else before the report. Lly ytd Mountain Eli Lilly shares a year to date. Citigroup: Buy Rating, $ 1,190 Target Targets Citi Analyst Geoff Meacham said Lilly remained one of his favorite actions, and he placed a 90 -day catalyst watch on July 30. Its price target of $ 1,190 implies 55% of Tuesday’s fence. “The IQVIA GLP-1 script-1 data gives us continuous confidence in the realization of Lilly’s income advice in 2025 ($ 58 billion at $ 61 billion). In particular, Zepbound scripts remain robust (+ 45% Q / Q) and the overall share increased to 65.5%, representing a gain of ~ 600bps on the market. [total prescriptions] And highlight an increasing potential for a consumption angle in GLP-1 sales… adoption in the future (2q25th 3.1 billion dollars; + $ 99 million against BBG CONS). [Type 2 diabetes drug] Mounjaro’s scripts increased by 16.3% Q / Q and now capture 42.2% share (2q25th 4.5 billion dollars; + $ 18 million against the counter); Although slower growth than Zepbounde, this is expected given the more rooted nature of the type 2 diabetes market. … The top of investors will be Orforglipron, the phase 3 reactivates the readings of obesity (Jul / August). Weight loss of 12 to 15% is the effectiveness bar and the continuation of a grumpy safety profile that we saw at Ada for buying… will be essential. “Morgan Stanley: Murning, $ 1,135 at the beginning of July, Morgan Stanley Analyst Terence Flynn changed its price target, which increases the slope by $ 1.135. Mounjaro + Zepbounde 2q Beat dictate how the Lly manages the revenue advice from $ 58 to $ 61 billion (MS 62.3 Million dollars vs against 59.8 billion dollars), but we expect an increase in the low -end at least. Disabling to treat earlier in the disease and extending the opportunity of the category, as well as for lateral reading at Biib / Eisai’s Leqembi (Where Ph3 is also underway) JPMorgan all has a price of $ 1,100 for Lilly shares, which suggests that it could increase by almost 44% compared to the closing of Tuesday. Scripts in the United States, the increase here results from an additional unexpected pricing (discount adjustments), a sub-declaration in IQVIA (a possibility) and an ex-performer (due to lower visibility). Do not plan that Lly will rush to increase the advice, given the last two years, half of the challenges and the uncertainty for the Q3 which remains on CVS Caremark (although the initial panels are strong). Consequently, we would be buyers of Lly on weakness, because we expect a solid 2q and a 2H’25 rich in catalyst. Dollars of dollars of dollars “. [direct-to consumer] Initiatives. For the future, we expect a certain moderation in the growth of Zepbound while the change in CVS form takes effect on July 1, but we are waiting for the product to increase TRX in 3q and accelerate in 4q. And for the year, our estimates are close to the higher end of the company’s directives in 2025 on the two toplines (sales of $ 60.8 billion, + 1.3 billion dollars vs against) and on the background ($ 22.09 EPS, + $ 0.07 vs against) and we will not be surprised to see the advice at a time dynamics). “Goldman Sachs: Buying $ 883 The price of $ 883 of Haider is around 15% above where Lilly shares closed on Tuesday.” … We expect another beat of income, fired by a [foreign exchange] The rear wind and strong growth TRX for Zepbounde / Mounjaro where our estimates and consensus followed higher in printing. … In the call of profits 2q, we also note important discussions on investors on the scale of the potential increase on the revenue advice for the 2010 financial year of the company where we expect the management could tighten the range from $ 58 to 61 billion dollars for the year by increasing the low -end (depending on 1 hour, GS / billions of dollars / 60.6 billion dollars for 2025). These trends are now well understood, investors focus more on the tension to triangulate the impact on sales of 3q25 for Zepbound / Mounjaro from the change of CVS form in favor of Novo which entered into force on July 1. “”
