The United States joined Israel in his war against the Islamic Republic of Iran on Saturday evening while President Donald Trump ordered American bombers to destroy three key nuclear sites. Just before 8 PMTrump continued at Truth Social to disseminate the news:
In a brief television address at 10 PMTrump said the operation “spectacular military success” and said that the three sites had been “completely and completely erased”.
In recent days, polls have shown that a majority of the American people, including the majority of supporters of the president, opposed the war with Iran. By commanding these strikes, Trump acted without the approval of the congress and in contradiction with his campaign promise to avoid the type of disasters experienced in Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan. I recently wrote an article in review of many dangers and possibilities that could follow an American bombardment in Iran. After hearing the news, I immediately called one of the country’s most competent experts on Iran, Karim Sadjadpour. He is academic at the Endowment for International Peace Carnegie and worked as an analyst at the International Crisis Group in Tehran, from 2003 to 2005.
“I’m in shock,” said Sadjadpour, about ten minutes after Trump’s announcement. “I’m sitting here looking at this on CNN and trying to see the reaction on Twitter in Persian language.”
“It is unprecedented, dropping a bomb of thirty thousand pounds,” he continued. “Anyone who has observed the last two decades in history in the Middle East would think hard to unleash such an attack. You would like to think of several steps, and there is no evidence that the president has done this. His tweet and public comments have given the impression that it is the end of the war and the beginning of peace, but I suspect the Iranians who think differently. REGION – Take the pride of that and now it is destroyed.
The question is now to know how Iran will react. “If Ayatollah [Ali Khamenei] Answers weakly, he loses his face, “said Sadjadpour.” If he answers too strongly, he could lose his head. »»
“Many options they have for reprisals are the strategic equivalent of suicide bombardment,” he continued. “They can make huge damage to our embassies. They could exploit the Hormuz Strait. They can continue the missile dams against Israel. They can try to make real damage to the global economy, although the regime may not survive the return. ”
Over the past two weeks, Israeli intelligence and bombers have wiped out a large part of the upper ranks of the Iranian security establishment, as well as the best nuclear scientists in the country. The body of the Islamic revolutionary guard is still in place, however, and, according to many analyzes, they are likely to fulfill any emptiness of power, at least in the short term. But the truth is that Sadjadpour said that the events of the next few days and months will be difficult to foresee.
Will the Israelis or Americans never present difficult and convincing evidence on the Iranian nuclear threat and its calendar? It is not for the first time, Benjamin Netanyahu said that the threat was imminent and acted on this subject, and yet he did not provide the public with clear evidence that Iran was close to obtaining a nuclear weapon. Trump either. Israel and the United States have now found the Iranian nuclear program like never before. And yet, if this diet survives, it could well make a secret effort in the future to produce or obtain an atomic weapon as a deterrent against a repetition of strikes which have just occurred.
“Are we going to look back and say that it prevented an Iranian bomb or ensure one?” Sadjadpour said. “Likewise, have we accelerated the disappearance of the regime, or have we rooted it?” The modern history of the Middle East does not give these questions favorable to these questions. Iran is in a unique situation. humiliated. “”
Khamenei is eighty-six years old and has been in power since 1989. “He is one of the longest dictators in the world-you don’t do it by being a player,” said Sadjadpour. “He has an instinct for survival but also instincts of challenge. Difficult to see how the result can be positive for him.
“But, as we have learned too often in history, military success is not always reflected in political success. In my opinion – and perhaps history will see it differently – so much that we are now doing as a nation, it is not a reflection of national deliberation or national interest. A great sense of urgency to be resolved in Iran.
In Saudi Arabia last month, Trump delivered an extraordinary speech which was very critical of military interventions and national construction adventures in the Middle East. “In the end, the so-called nation builders destroyed many more nations than they have built,” said Trump. “And the interventionists intervene in complex companies that they did not even understand.”
