Distribution effects of the selected provisions of the bills of reconciliation of the Chamber and the Senate

Expenditure changes

For Snap and Medicaid, we use the reception of the AutoDeclared Program in the annual annual annual supplement (ASEC) of the current survey of the current population as the basis of our estimates. Although the value of the SnAP services received is reported in ASEC, the expenses of Medicaid is not; As such, we impute Medicaid expenses for each individual in the reception of the ASEC signaling Medicaid using CBO reference projections of average federal expenses in terms of payment of advantages by registration.

Once the advantages of the Snap and Medicaid of individuals, we gather individuals within each household in tax units using the charged identity of the tax unit charged to the census office and sort them by an adjusted gross income (AG) as attributed by the census.

We adjust the reception of Snap and Medicaid services reported to take into account the well-known phenomenon of under-declaration of the benefits in kind of ASEC households. To do this, we increase the overall advantages of each income group received so that the total advantages correspond to the reference projections of CBO. (This is equivalent to assuming that people who receive services but do not report them in ASEC have the same income distribution as people who receive services and signal them.)

Compared to the previous versions of the analysis of changes to Snap and Medicaid, the analysis of this report reflects two recent changes to the distribution methodology of the budget laboratory, which correspond to those of the Congressal Budget Office (CBO) in its recent analysis of the distribution impact of the version of the Bill Chamber:

• In accordance with several economic studies, we assume that a little more than half (56%) of the modifications made to Medicaids are ultimately incumbent on providers, the rest falling on the registrants.
• We assume that the States will replace, on the net, approximately 1 percent of the loss of resources of the household due to the reductions of federal expenses on Medicaid and to taking the 2026-2034 window.

The scripts used to calculate the estimates of this analysis can be found here.

Modification of taxes

The effects of tax changes are estimated using the standard LAB budget distribution analysis methodology with the exception that the income metric for classification tax units is acted, and not a broader measurement of income, due to data constraints in ASEC.

Our analysis includes the following provisions: ordinary tax rate, standard deduction, detailed deductions (including Ptet salt policy), personal exemptions, QBI, CTC, CDCTC, CDCTC, AMT, without tax on advice / overtime / car loans, senior deduction, succession tax, depreciation of bonuses and R&D extensions.

The script used to generate the figures for this analysis can be found here. For more information on our tax model, please refer to these two pages of documentation: