Democrats are faced with an increasing concern in New Jersey while the race for the Governor of the State is tightening and the new data show that the Republicans have gained an early advantage in voting by mail before the November elections.
The figures updated this week indicate that the republican election returns have exceeded the Democrats for the first time in the 2025 cycle, reflecting a change that intensified the challenges for the campaign of representative Mikie Sherrill against the former legislator of the State Jack Ciattarelli.
According to To electoral analyst Michael Pruser, 18.6% of all voting bulletins by mail have so far returned are republican voters, against 16.6% of Democrats and 9.3% of other parties. The Republicans now hold a two -point lead in the return rates, and the post -post -voting is six more republican points than at the same time in 2024, when the Democrats led the early count. Overall, Democrats still represent a majority of voting bulletins by post, around 62.3%, but the higher republican return rate marks a significant reversal of past trends.
Developments come as anxios reported The fact that national democrats are increasingly alarmed by the performance of Sherrill’s campaign, describing an increasing concern that the party could lose the government in a traditionally democratic state. Several party strategists have told Axios that Sherrill’s operation had suffered from a “stumbling series” and a little clear message, despite heavy investments from national groups.
Some Democrats have told Axios that Sherrill, a former navy pilot and a four -mandate congress, is “a better paper candidate than in reality”. They said that she had been too scripted, did not focus enough on high prices and completed too much on Washington staff rather than New Jersey -based agents. The democratic strategist Irene Lin, who does not work on the race, observed that Sherrill “spent a fortune on polls and has no message beyond the helicopter and the Ciattarelli loves Trump”, warning that “the tired anti-top attacks are not sufficient”.
The Axios report also described the internal frustration of the party after Sherrill was criticized for its treatment of questions on personal finances and the trades of actions. In an interview in May with the host of Radio Charlamagne Tha God, she seemed uncertain when he was questioned about the richness of her family and if she won $ 7 million through action trades as presumed in the conservative media, answering: “I don’t have it … I don’t think I did it”, before saying that she should check the source of the claim. The incident attracted a meticulous exam when the Ciattarelli campaign launched a website entitled Mikiemademillions.com highlight the exchange.
Another problem has surfaced when Sherrill had a hard time appointing specific legislation that she would favor if she was elected governor during an interview with CBS New York, which the Ciattarelli campaign later used in an advertisement as unparaled. A pro-Ciattarelli Super Pac has also published an ad with Sherrill saying that clean energy “would cost you an arm and a leg, but if you are a good person, you will do it”. Axios said Sherrill had criticized the messaging of his own party at the time, without defending higher costs.
A spokesperson for Republican Governors Association, who supports the group behind the announcement, refused to contact Sherrill outside his context directly and rather published a declaration criticizing his file on energy. The Sherrill’s campaign replied that it focused on reducing the costs of New Jersey families since the start of its campaign, citing its strong primary performance and its stable survey advance. The campaign director, Alex Ball, told Axios that the accent on Sherrill’s affordability “has been his message from the first day” and added that she does not have or exchange for individual stocks.
Meanwhile, Ciattarelli has intensified awareness of the voters of the working class and minorities, Axios noting that the Democrats are concerned about his efforts to make breakthroughs in black communities which generally vote for their party. The two candidates disseminated advertisements focused on high costs of public services, the Ciattarelli promising tax alternatives and energy reforms while Sherrill has emphasized clean power and economic competitiveness.
The survey has noted The breed actually linked. An Emerson College, Pix11, and the Hill Survey led from September 22 to 23 revealed that the two candidates at 43% with 11% of indecisive voters. The result reflected similar conclusions from the end of September and stressed how competitive the competition became competitive in a state president Joe Biden won in two figures in 2020.
The tightening race follows weeks of debate on the history of Sherrill at the United States Naval Academy, where it was rod To walk at his 1994 diploma after refusing to identify the classmates involved in a cheating scandal. His campaign argued that the episode was distorted by political opponents while defending his decade of military service. The questions also have emerged Regarding the admission of two of his children to the Naval Academy, although the Sherrill campaign said that he had applied through the American senators in New Jersey to avoid any conflict of interest.
Ciattarelli has capitalized On these controversies, supervise them within the framework of a broader question of transparency and responsibility. He also benefited from the growing republican enthusiasm, supported by amendment Former Democrats and Labor Manager organized dissatisfied with the Directorate of the State under the leadership of Democrats. The Republican candidate, approved by President Donald Trump, a concentrate His messages on tax reduction, support for police and the fight against economic concerns across the State.
The basic organizers highlighted the importance of the participation rate as a decisive factor. Scott Presler of the early voting action said Breitbart News on Saturday That the race is “won” for the Republicans but will depend on the maximization of early participation and the day of the ballot. Presler stressed that the 2021 competition was decided by only 84,000 votes despite hundreds of thousands of Republicans who stay at home, urging voters to take advantage of the early voting and position options to avoid potential voting complications.
