Democrats scored big victories in this week’s elections. Where do both parties go from here? : NPR

JUANA SUMMERS, HOST:

This week’s election was the first time voters were able to express their feelings a year after President Trump was elected. And the answer was clear. They are not satisfied with the ruling party. Today, both Republicans and Democrats are reflecting on where they stand today and what they need to do to win in the future. NPR political editor and senior correspondent Domenico Montanaro and senior White House correspondent Tamara Keith are also thinking about it, and they’re here to talk about it. Hi.

TAMARA KEITH, BYLINE: Hello.

DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Nice to be with you.

SUMMERS: So guys, the Democrats had a huge week, big wins for the mayor of New York, the governor of New Jersey, as well as in Virginia. How do they feel about the future?

KEITH: Democrats have found their groove, at least a little, after last year’s bruising defeats. They have spent months in the political wilderness, but now they feel like they have a roadmap mapped out. Just listen to Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin on a phone call earlier this week.

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KEN MARTIN: Make no mistake, the Democratic Party is back. The Democratic Party is a party of affordability, and it is full steam ahead to take back Congress next year.

KEITH: Winning is a hell of a drug.

MONTANARO: Yes, and that’s a lesson they learned from the 2024 election. You know, a lot of people thought it was too esoteric, focused in many ways on Trump and democracy. You know, Kamala Harris says the Democratic candidate has tried the economy and inflation, but it’s much harder to win and focus on affordability when you’re in charge and people are unhappy with the state of the cost of living. And it’s a message that Democrats are now rallying around, regardless of the candidate.

SUMMERS: And there was a lot of ideological diversity among the Democratic Party candidates who won. How does the party handle this?

KEITH: Yes, it’s easy to look at the election of democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani in New York and moderates Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill in Virginia and New Jersey and say, wow, this party is split between progressives and moderates, but there’s actually a direct line, which Martin referenced. It’s this question of affordability.

And there’s an analogy here to 2006, when Democrats were still licking the wounds from George W. Bush’s re-election and voters were in a bad mood. Democrats united behind a clear and simple message. John Lawrence was chief of staff to Nancy Pelosi, who became Speaker of the House after this election. And he says Democrats need to do the same thing now, and he even hopes they will.

JOHN LAWRENCE: For all the attention on Mamdani, if you listen to Spanberger’s or Sherrill’s acceptance speeches, they all speak the same language. I mean, they’re not talking about free buses or rent control, but that doesn’t matter. They talk about affordability.

KEITH: He says Democrats just need to stick with this message of affordability through the midterms – cost of living, groceries, electric bills, housing costs – and not get distracted by social issues, climate change or democracy issues.

SUMMERS: That’s right. But as you well know, President Trump, during his campaign, specifically promised that he would fix the economy. He now claims that’s the case, but that’s not how voters say they feel. So what does this mean for Republicans?

MONTANARO: Yeah. I mean, Trump won in 2024 because of the cost of living, and he promised to fix it, but what he calls a great economy doesn’t resonate with voters, and that was clearly the case in this off-year election. For Trump, it’s all about things like the stock market and gas prices, but that’s not all, and his tariffs have actively made things more expensive.

SUMMERS: Does the White House recognize it though?

KEITH: One of the president’s top policy advisers said this week that Trump was going to move toward a deeper discussion about the cost of living, but he talked about it a lot this week, actually, as if it wasn’t a real issue.

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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: I don’t want to hear about affordability because right now we’re a lot less affordable. If you look at energy, we’re getting closer to $2 a gallon gasoline.

KEITH: That was Trump last night at a dinner for Central Asian leaders, and he really seemed to dismiss concerns about the cost of living as a messaging issue.

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TRUMP: Affordability is much better among Republicans. The only problem is that the Republicans aren’t talking about it, and the Republicans should start talking about it and use their heads, because we have so many numbers. We have very good results – and they will only get better.

KEITH: He says the numbers will improve because his tariff policies will ultimately improve the U.S. economy, although it’s really not clear at this point. Right now, Trump faces the same problems as President Biden, which is that you can’t credibly tell people that economic fundamentals are strong and inflation is slowing if in their real lives they experience a shock.

SUMMERS: That’s right, and when we get to the midterms, Republicans will still be in charge. President Trump himself will not be on the ballot, however. So what dynamic does this create for Republican candidates?

MONTANARO: Yeah, I mean, no matter what they do, Republicans are going to be tied to Trump. But in these swing districts, they will likely have to try — if the affordability environment doesn’t change — to distance themselves somewhat from Trump. Here’s Republican strategist Mike DuHaime, former political director of the Republican National Committee, making the point.

MIKE DUHAIME: Especially in blue and purple states, there has to be some differentiation from Trump. This doesn’t mean you have to step away completely, but there has to be something in which you demonstrate some level of independence and some level of individuality.

MONTANARO: And another part of the problem here for Republicans is that they can’t actually be Donald Trump.

DUHAIME: Most candidates need to understand that you are not Donald Trump. You weren’t on “The Apprentice” for 10 years. You weren’t a star in WWE. Your name is not on the buildings.

MONTANARO: So we really live in an age of famous politicians, but it’s also an age of anger at whoever’s in charge. You know, again, 2006 was a marker for the start of this trend. You know, consider that 6 of the last 7 midterm elections have had presidents with approval ratings below 50%, and we’re heading toward that again with Trump.

KEITH: Yes, that’s a problem that Democrats had when President Obama was in office. He was a turnout machine, but only when he was on the ballot. And the party suffered significant losses nationally and even locally during his presidency. Right now, Democrats don’t have an obvious leader. That will likely be decided in the presidential primary over the next two and a half years, and it’s also unclear what a post-Trump Republican Party will look like as he has demanded absolute loyalty and fidelity from his party members.

MONTANARO: Right now, in this era of anger and skepticism about presidents, being out of power gives Democrats the advantage heading into next year’s midterm elections.

SUMMERS: NPR’s Domenico Montanaro and Tamara Keith, thank you both.

KEITH: You’re welcome.

MONTANARO: You got it.

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