Correction: This story has been updated to reflect that Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle would be the first pope of the modern era of Asia.
The Paris markets around the world suggest that two cardinals, Pietro Parolin or Luis Antonio Tagle, have the best chance of becoming the next Pope. An expert in Paris, however, wonders how we can read these bets.
On Wednesday, 133 cardinals will meet for a papal conclave at the Vatican Sistine Chapel and will start the process of selecting a successor to Pope Francis, who died on April 21.
In the hours following the death of Francis, sites such as Polymarket, a Cypto trading platform, and Kalshi, a long-term platform, saw the Paroline, a candidate for compromise between progressives and conservatives, exceed the rest of the potential candidates. He remains the favorite in most Paris markets.
Who are the favorites to be the next pope
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But do not expect the various Paris markets to compete with the precision of those who predict events such as elections, explains Harry Crane, professor of statistics at Rutgers University, who studies the electoral results and the predictions made by the markets of the bets.
“It is not a trivially small market, but it is quite small in comparison,” said Crane. While the American presidential elections have attracted billions of dollars in Paris, only a few million are at stake on betting on a new Pope. He said three groups of bettors help drive Paris markets.
Which motivates the Paris markets on larger participations
The presidential elections are impregnated in the three elements above, which then leads to larger bets of each of the three groups. In turn, larger markets tend to lead to better predictions.
“There is a lot of information in terms of data,” said Crane about presidential elections. “There are a lot of risks because any business in the world is exposed to who becomes president and to the decisions they can make. We now see it in real time with prices. And recreational, people are just interested in this.”
Thus, although there is growing interest in the whole world which will become the next pope, there is not much to attract to professional bettors – with the exception of small quantities betted by recreational bettors.
However, there are some parallels which can be attracted to the chances of the presidential elections in 2024 when the Democrats put pressure on Joe Biden to withdraw from the race in July following his difficulties in the debate with Donald Trump.
“We have seen these dimensions change fairly radically on the basis of very little information on what Nancy Pelosi may or may not have said,” said Crane. “In a way, they are very similar because it was done behind closed doors, and the (conclave) is done behind closed doors.”
Where the chances represent the next pope in various Paris markets
Crane says that he doubts that these markets will be as precise as the larger elections, sports or business markets, but perhaps these markets have at least landed on the most likely candidates.
“This has more predictability than if you chose one of the 130 cardinals, and you have given them all the same likely to win? I would say” yeah “.
“If you have specific information on five of the cardinals, or perhaps one or two specific, you could get a lot of information on what will happen,” said Crane. “There are only 130.”
Who could become the next pope?
Details on the best candidates to become a Francis successor:
Cardinal Pietro Paroline
Position: Vatican diplomat
Nationality: Italian
Age: 70
What else? Paroline is considered a candidate for compromise between progressives and conservatives. He has been church diplomat for most of his life and has been Francis’ secretary of state (often called “assistant pope”) since 2013, the year of the election of Francis.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle
Position: Former Archbishop of Manila
Nationality: Philippine
Age: 67
What else? Tagle is often called “Asian Francis” because of its similar commitment to social justice. If he was elected, he would be the first pontiff in the modern Asian era.
Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson
Position: Vatican official; President of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace
Nationality: Ghanaian
Age: 76
What else? The history of Turkson include the holding of congregations in Ghana in addition to directing several offices of the Vatican. It comes from one of the most dynamic regions of the Church, which fights against secularism in its European hearts. He would be the first pope in sub -Saharan Africa.
Matteo Maria Zuppi
Position: Bologna archbishop
Nationality: Italian
Age: 69
What else? Zuppi is called “Italian Bergoglio” because of its affinity with Francis. Zuppi is known as a “street priest” who focuses on migrants and poor and cares little about the pump and the protocol. He would be the first Italian pope since 1978.
Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa
Position: Latin patriarch of Jerusalem
Nationality: Italian
Age: 59
What else? Pizzaballa served in Jerusalem and pleaded for peace in the Middle East. He criticized the invasion of Hamas of Israel and Israeli attacks against civilians in Gaza. His relative youth can affect his chance of being selected.
Cardinal Peter Erdo
Position: Former president of the Council of Bishops Conferences of Europe
Nationality: Hungarian
Age: 72
What else? Erdo is considered to be another compromise candidate. It ranks as a curator in theology but is also considered pragmatic. He never faced openly with Francis, unlike other religious of tradition of tradition.
