The humble soy is the last flash point in the Trump administration campaign to reshape world trade.
Used in everything, from animal feeding to fuel, soybeans are regularly ranked among the most precious American agricultural exports, dominating higher profile crops such as corn and cotton.
According to the American department of agriculture, more than $ 30 billion in American soybean products were exported during the year 2024.
For American soy producers, their best market abroad has long been China, which has bought about a third of export culture – around $ 12 billion in American soy products – in the past calendar year, show USDA data.
But no more now.
While the trade war of President Donald Trump leaves American-Chinese relations somewhere between glacial and openly hostile, American soy farmers seem to be an early victim.
An embargo with any other name
So far, China has not bought American soybeans during the main period of harvesting this year, sales falling from zero in May.
This has pushed many American farmers dependent on soybeans almost to the point of rupture.
This has also complicated the Trump administration’s plans to provide billions of economic aid abroad to Argentina.
Buenos Aires recently sold more than 2.5 million metric tonnes of soybeans in Beijing, after having briefly suspended his export tax on soy products.
US officials blame China for the imminent crisis in the face of American soy producers.
“It is regrettable that Chinese leaders have decided to use American farmers, soy farmers in particular, hostage or in pawn in commercial negotiations,” said Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary on CNBC on Thursday.
Farmers, however, see the situation differently. They want Trump to reach a trade agreement with China that ends unofficial embargo in soybeans. But instead, what they see is that the White House is preparing to bail out one of their main competitors for the Chinese export market.
“The frustration is overwhelming,” said the president of the American Soybean Association Caleb Ragland in a recent press release.
Meanwhile, China – the world’s largest soybean buyer – indicated last week that it will not resume American purchases unless more Trump prices are lifted.
“With regard to soy’s trade, the American party should take proactive measures to eliminate relevant unreasonable rates, create conditions to extend bilateral trade and inject more stability and certainty into global economic development,” said the spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, He Yadong in Beijing.
Emergency help arrive
The Trump administration will announce new support for farmers, “in particular soy farmers,” said Bessent on Tuesday.
“We will also work with the Farm Credit Bureau to ensure that farmers have what they need for the next planting season,” he added.
Bessent has personally up to $ 25 million in agricultural land in northern Dakota which produce corn and soy, according to its recent financial disclosure.
He said soybeans would be a subject of discussion at the next meeting between Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping in South Korea, on the sidelines of the Economic Cooperation Forum in Asia-Pacific later this month.
Trump is also aware of the impact that his trade policies has on American farmers, starting with soy producers.
“Our country’s soy producers are injured because China is, to” negotiate “only reasons, without buying,” posted the president on Truth Social on Wednesday.
“We have made so much money on the prices, that we are going to take a little part of this money and help our farmers,” added Trump.
The question is whether this aid will come early enough to save the massive soywar harvest this year.
At the center of The Firetorm is the Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rollins, who warned this week that “this moment of uncertainty in the agricultural economy is real.” Speaking on Fox Business Network, she stressed that Trump has long supported American farmers.
“President Trump and Secretary Rollins are still in contact with the needs of our farmers, who played a crucial role in the president’s victory in November,” the White House said in a statement on Thursday. “He clearly indicated his intention to use pricing income to help our agricultural sector, but no final decision on the contours of this plan has been made.”
The Argentinian factor
The current evolution of American China on soy exports also complicates another enigma of American foreign policy: what to do with the faulty economy of Argentina.
While the exports of American soybeans to China had yelled, the farmers of Argentina jumped at the opportunity to sell China their own soy.
From their point of view, a potential set of American economic aid has nothing to do with their soy exports, and everything to do with the personal and political alliance between Trump and Libertarian President Javier Milei.
Milei was the first foreign leader to visit Trump after his electoral victory in 2024, and he became a familiar face during the American political events to which the supporters of President Maga attended.
At a conservative political action conference outside Washington, DC in February, Milei offered the Elon Musk government’s effectiveness at the time a red chainsaw.
Musk then agitated him on stage, the appellant “the chainsaw for the bureaucracy”.
Eight months later, Milei’s popularity with voters plunged, which raises doubts about the future of its friendly economic reforms and strict austerity measures.
In early September, the local elections brought a blow to the Milei party, triggering massive disorders in the markets of actions and currencies in Argentina.
A few weeks after the market dive, Bessent announced on social networks that the United States was ready to deploy billions of dollars to support the South American country.
A presidential delegation from Buenos Aires is expected to visit the White House next week to finalize the US foreign aid agreement.
This made soy farmers furious.
“The prices of American soybeans decrease, the harvest is underway and the farmers read the major titles not on obtaining a trade agreement with China, but that the United States government extends $ 20 billion in economic support for Argentina while this country drops its soy export taxes to sell 20 Argentine soy ships to China in just two days,” said Ragland.
Meanwhile, Milei also obtained a currency exchange line for Argentina from China, a situation that gives some break in Washington.
In response, Milei said Argentina would maintain its mutually beneficial trade and economic relations with China.
Tensions inside the Trump administration above China, Argentina and soy producers were opened last week.
While attending the United Nations General Assembly, Bessent received an SMS of contact entitled “BR”.
“We bailed Argentina yesterday … And in return, the Argentinian deleted their export rate on cereals, reducing their price and sold a pile of soybeans to China at a time when we normally sell to China,” read the message, largely alleged from Rollins.
“The prices of soybeans drop more because of this. It gives China more leverage on us,” concluded the message.
The spokespersons of Bessent and Rollins did not answer questions about the exchange of SMS.
