Carbon emissions from oil giants directly linked to dozens of fatal waves for the first time | Climate crisis

Carbon emissions from the largest fossil fuels in the world have been directly linked to dozens of fatal waves for the first time, according to a new analysis. Research was praised as a “leap forward” in the legal battle to hold a big oil responsible for the damage caused by the climate crisis.

Research revealed that the emissions of one of the 14 largest companies were in themselves sufficient to cause more than 50 heat waves which would have otherwise been practically impossible. The study shows, in fact, that these emissions caused heat waves.

Carbon pollution of exxonmobil fossil fuels, for example, has been 51 waves of heat at least 10,000 times more likely than in an unheated world, researchers have noted, as are the emissions of Saudi Aramco.

Global heating makes heat waves more frequent and more intense worldwide, contributing to at least 500,000 heat -related deaths per year. The burning heat wave that struck the Pacific to the northwest of the United States in 2021 was made almost 3C hot, for example.

The new research has revealed that the total emissions of the 180 “major carbon” companies included in the analysis were responsible for about half of the increase in intensity, the emissions due to the destruction of the forests constituting most of the others. He also found that the 213 waves of heat studied have become 200 times more likely on average from 2010 to 2019 due to the climate crisis.

“Being able to retrace the contribution of these singles [carbon major] Emitters and quantifying their contribution could be very useful for establishing potential responsibility, “said Professor Sonia Seneviratne, at Eth Zurich University in Switzerland, the main author of the report.

Dr. Davide Faranda, director of research at the French National Center for Scientific Research and not part of the study team, said: “This study adds a new crucial step: it links points between specific climatic disasters and companies whose emissions made them possible. This bridge could become a cornerstone for legal and political actions to hold responsible polluters. ”

Cassidy Dipola, spokesperson for the Make Polleters Pay campaign, said: “We can now indicate specific heat waves and say:” Saudi Aramco has done so. Exxonmobil did it. “When their emissions alone trigger heat waves that would not have occurred otherwise, we are talking about real people who have died, real cultures that have failed and real communities that have suffered, all because of the decisions taken in business consulting rooms.”

The highest court in the world, the International Court of Justice, judged in July that preventing climatic damage could lead to compensation, while a high German court has set a legal precedent in May that fossil combustible companies could be held responsible for their contribution. “Here are the evidence that the courts were waiting for,” said Dipola. “The invoice is matched, and it is time that these polluters pay for the damage they have done.”

Research, published in the journal Nature, used a type of analysis called award. This compares the warmer world today with the world before mass burning of fossil fuels to assess how emissions have resulted in temperatures, using weather data and computer models.

Scientists first determined how the emissions of each carbon major increased temperatures, then how much these higher temperatures increased the probability of thermal waves. Previous research has linked hundreds of individual events to global heating, but this study is the first to systematically analyze a series of events.

“Climate change has made each of the 213 waves of heat more likely and more intense, and the situation has worsened over time,” said Dr. Yann Quilcille de Eth Zurich, the main author of the study.

Research revealed that the increase in the average intensity of heat waves increased from 1.4 ° C in 2000-09 to 2.2 ° C in 2020-2023. The 213 main waves of heat evaluated took place from 2000 to 2023 and lasted all the continents. The data about them have been taken from the largest database in the event of a disaster, EM-DAT, but Africa and South America have been considerably under-represented due to the lack of appropriate relationships and data data.

“The results of the study probably underestimate the real scale of these events, and the real consequences are probably much more important,” said Dr. Friederike Otto, to the Imperial College in London.

Even the emissions of fossil fuel companies at the bottom of the list of carbon majors had a significant impact on heat waves. Carbon pollution of each of them has made 16 heat waves become at least 10,000 times more likely than before the climate crisis.

“This study is a leap forward which could be used to support future climate proceedings,” said Dr. Karsten Haustein, at the University of Leipzig in Germany, and not part of the study team. “It is also a reminder that denial and anti-science rhetoric will not make climate responsibility disappear.”

Carbon emissions are issued when people use petroleum, gas or coal to heat their home or feed their transportation, but Quilcaille said that fossil fuel companies had a particular responsibility – they had continued profit by disinformation and lobbying, despite their known since the 1980s that the combustion of fossil fuel would cause global heating.

However, no polluter had yet been held responsible in court and the challenges remained, said Professor Michael Gerrard and Dr Jessica Wentz, from Sabin Center for Climate Change Law to Columbia University.

“The problem is the various legal questions that must be resolved before scientists can take the position of the witness,” they said in a comment of a nature. The questions included the courts that should hear the business, if producers of fossil fuels should be responsible for their clients’ emissions, and if long deception campaigns by certain fossil combustible companies were relevant, said Gerrard and Wentz.

“The new study is another element of construction, and useful, but the path of real responsibility for carbon majors is still strewn with legal and proof nest nests,” they said.

Exxonmobil and Saudi Aramco did not respond to requests for comments.