There’s still tennis to be played, but not much room to move. As the regular season draws to a close, three players are in the top spot for the final two singles spots at the PIF WTA Finals in Riyadh.
Mirra Andreeva, Jasmine Paolini and Elena Rybakina are separated by only 407 points in the WTA Race rankings. One of them will finish outside the top eight and will be named first substitute in Riyadh.
All three are in the draw for the AUX Ningbo China Open, where play begins on Monday. Above all, this event offers 500 points to the winner. Paolini and Rybakina are also scheduled to play the following week at the Toray Pan Pacific Open in Tokyo, Japan, the final 500 tournament on the calendar.
Jessica Pegula’s quarterfinal victory over Katerina Siniakova in Wuhan, coupled with Rybakina’s loss to Aryna Sabalenka, officially qualified Pegula. This is his fourth consecutive participation in the end-of-year championships.
Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff, Amanda Anisimova and Madison Keys qualified ahead of Pegula.
Here’s a closer look at the battle for the remaining spots:
Who can qualify
No.7 Mirra Andreeva
Race points: 4,320
Record 2025: 40-15, 2 titles (Dubai, Indian Wells)
The skinny one: After winning back-to-back WTA 1000 events and reaching the quarter-finals at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, the teenager seemed like a safe bet for Riyadh, but there have been some growing pains for the 18-year-old recently. She is 4-4 since Wimbledon – and 2-2 in China. Andreeva is the number one seed in Ningbo but her draw is difficult. She could see Emma Raducanu in her first match and No. 7 seed Diana Shnaider or the winner between Karolina Muchova and Marketa Vondrousova in the second.
Simply put, if Andreeva wins the title this week, she will be in it. But things get complicated from there, with Rybakina’s results likely to shape the outcome of the final places. For example, a loss for Rybakina in the first round would also allow Andreeva to qualify.
N°8 Jasmin Paolini
Race points: 4,131
Record 2025: 35-11, 1 title (Rome)
The skinny one: Paolini closed the gap with a semifinal in Wuhan before losing to Gauff, 6-4, 6-3. Seeded No. 2 in Ningbo, she will start against Veronika Kudermetova or against wild card Zhang Shuai.
Another semi-final, as long as Elena Rybakina is not her opponent, would likely guarantee qualification; a final would guarantee it.
No. 9 Elena Rybakina
Race points: 3,913
Record 2025: 47-19, 1 title (Strasbourg)
The skinny one: Elena Rybakina was upset in the third round in Beijing by Eva Lys and cruised quietly into the Wuhan quarterfinals, losing 6-3, 6-3 to Aryna Sabalenka. Seeded No. 3 this week, she begins against the winner Victoria Mboko and Dayana Yastremska.
As things stand, Rybakina cannot qualify this week. She would need to reach at least the semi-finals to earn additional race points. A title run could put her ahead of Paolini if Paolini fails to reach the semi-final, although Rybakina would still trail Mirra Andreeva.
Alternative race
No. 10 Ekaterina Alexandrova
Race points: 3,158
Record 2025: 43-22, 1 title (Linz)
The skinny one: Playing in Ningbo and Tokyo, she is best placed to secure the alternate second place. Alexandrova, 30, makes her Top 10 debut on Monday, making her the third-oldest player to debut in the WTA Top 10 behind only Roberta Vinci (33) and Betty Stove (31).
No. 11 Clara Tauson
Race points: 2,770
Record 2025: 36-21, 1 title (Auckland)
The skinny one: Also scheduled to face Ningbo and Tokyo, Tauson is the No. 5 seed and will face qualifier Ajla Tomljanovic in the first round in Ningbo.
No. 14 Belinda Bencic
Race points: 2,469
Record 2025: 32-16, 1 title (Abu Dhabi)
The skinny one: With number 12 Elina Svitolina out for the season and number 13 Emma Navarro withdrawing, Bencic moves up the list next. The 28-year-old mother plans to play the final two weeks, starting as the No. 6 seed against Magda Linette. To reach another place, Bencic would likely need back-to-back finals and a title at one of the remaining WTA 500 events.
