Bolsonaro of Brazil at the trial: house arrest, state charges and American pressure explained
The Supreme Court of Brazil opened a historic trial against former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is accused of having plotted the country’s elections in 2022 on Tuesday and cling to power.
The case, unprecedented in the modern democracy of Brazil, could – if it is found guilty – send the populist from right to prison for decades and reshape the political future of the country.
Prosecutors allege that Bolsonaro and his closest allies orchestrated a coup d’etat plan that included discussions on the assassination of the President in office Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva, his vice-president, and the judge of the Supreme Court Alexandre de Moraes, who supervises the trial.
Bolsonaro, already under house arrest for defying legal restrictions, denied any reprehensible act. The former president will be tried alongside seven best aids and former ministers who, prosecutors, allege as the “nervous center” of a criminal organization determined to dismantle the democratic regime.
The trial will take place on several sessions between September 2 and 12, before a panel of five members of the Supreme Court. Judge Alexandre de Moraes, who conducted the Bolsonaro investigation and was himself a target of the alleged conspiracy, will open procedures with a summary of the sprawling case before delivering the first vote.
His colleagues, four judges appointed by President Lula and his leftist predecessor Dilma Rousseff, will follow (de Moraes was appointed by Michel Temer, the right president of the center who succeeded Dilma after the indictment). Once the vote is finished, if Bolsonaro and his co-accused are convicted, the judges will also discuss the determination of the sentence. Defense lawyers could always make calls according to how the votes are configured, but once these challenges are exhausted, the decision becomes final and any prison sentence can be imposed.
The courtyard of the Court means that the procedure will ride the day of independence of Brazil on September 7 – a date seized by Bolsonaro and its movement as a demonstration of political force in recent years. Since its rise in power, supporters have largely adopted the national green and yellow flag and the football jersey in pro-Bolsonaro emblems. The federal authorities say that they are in force of the demonstrations during the holidays, monitoring the celebrations which can spread in political rallies or troubles while the fate of the former president is at stake.
Bolsonaro and his allies face accusations of directing an armed criminal organization, trying to abolish the democratic order of Brazil by force, to plot a coup and to commit violent acts against public institutions. They are also accused of harming protected public property during January 8, 2023, to assault government buildings by supporters of Bolsonaro.
If it is convicted, Bolsonaro could incur more than 40 years in prison. Analysts say that any sanction would probably not be immediate, given the potential of appeal. However, the case represents the last stage of a radical investigation and a decisive moment to know if the highest court in Brazil holds a former president responsible for criminally responsible for an alleged attempt to upset the country’s democracy and undermine its elections.
The evidence against Bolsonaro and his allies are largely focused on how he would have tried to hang on to power after losing against Lula in 2022. The federal police said that the former president had a “full knowledge” of a plan to overthrow the election results, put pressure on the military to intervene and even create a “Bureau to manage parallel crises” to direct the government. The judicial files also describe discussions on the assassination of Lula, his vice-president Geraldo Alckmin and the judge of Moraes.
At the same time, Bolsonaro faces a meticulous examination of a distinct police investigation into the obstruction of justice. A federal police report of August 20 accused him as well as his son Eduardo of having tried to interfere in the trial of the coup d’etat himself, including by requesting American sanctions against Brazilian officials and by coordinating pressure campaigns through close allies.
Bolsonaro’s medico-legal analysis also discovered a 33-page letter requesting the political asylum from Argentine President Javier Milei, as well as conversations with Donald Trump media companies in the United States, according to the Federal Police report. Investigators claim that the conclusions strengthen their opinion that Bolsonaro remains a risk of theft and has repeatedly challenged judicial orders during its resistance to home.
The trial also sparked a full-fledged diplomatic confrontation with the United States. In a letter of July 9 to President Lula, US President Donald Trump described the pursuit of Bolsonaro “witch hunt” and asked him to “end immediately”.
He warned that the case is not interrupted, the United States would impose strong economic sanctions in Brazil. A few weeks later, Trump followed: an information sheet from the White House declared a national emergency and noted prices on Brazilian imports to 50%, explicitly citing the Bolsonaro test and the Brazilian treatment of American technological companies as a justification.
The declaration accused the Supreme Court of Brazil – and judge Alexandre de Moraes in particular – “politically motivated persecution” and “serious human rights violations”.
The Trump administration also sanctioned Moraes and revoked American visas for him, his colleagues and their families. Washington also condemned the order by placing Bolsonaro under house arrest, saying that Moraes used Brazilian institutions “to silence the opposition and threaten democracy”.
Lula was categorical with his responses to Trump, denouncing movements as “an unacceptable interference” and arguing that his country is a democracy with checks and sales, and that no president, foreign or national, can dictate the decisions of the Supreme Court.
Bolsonaro and his son Eduardo have long cultivated links inside Trump’s orbit and have built an influence in the Maga movement. Their lobbying has borne fruit: the United States has taken the extraordinary measure to impose prices, visa prohibitions and sanctions in direct response to the trial of a political ally.
Moraes, who led a very publicized repression of several years on online disinformation, has become the central figure of this dispute, pulling fire not only from the Bolsonaro camp, but also media allies and Trump technological platforms which faced its orders. His months spat with Elon Musk on X, formerly Twitter, and his requests that the platforms block the accounts related to the riots of January 8 have made him a symbol of the aggressive fight of Brazil against disinformation – and now, the improbable target of American foreign policy.
For Brazil, the case is a stress test for its institutions. Supporters consider him as proof that the judiciary holds responsible executive power. Critics highlight the enlarged courts of courts in recent years as a potential threat to democracy even that it has tried to protect and, whatever the verdict, the trial is likely to deepen polarization in a country already severely divided.
