Bitcoin Giant Strategy’s ‘Premium’ Almost Disappeared Last Year: Analysts Expect a Comeback

A key piston in the strategy’s growth engine is expected to recover alongside Bitcoin’s price despite last year’s hiccups, analysts at investment firm Bernstein predicted in a Tuesday note.

Although the Bitcoin buying company is currently valued at a slight premium to its digital asset holdings, that premium is expected to rise again as investors become more confident in the Tysons Corner, Virginia-based company’s ability to hold the asset, they wrote.

“As concerns over MSTR liquidation are resolved, we expect a strong recovery in the MSTR premium to net asset value toward its historical average,” they wrote, noting that the company has historically been valued at a multiple of net asset value, or mNAV, of 1.57.

When mNAV is high, Strategy can increase the amount of Bitcoin it owns per share by selling common stock and buying the asset. However, during the second half of last year, mNAV gradually faded, reaching 1.02 on Tuesday, according to Strategy’s. website.

During this time, the company leveraged several types of preferred stock as an additional source of funding for the purchase of Bitcoin. These products offer dividend payments, raising questions about Strategy’s ability to make payments as the price of Bitcoin fell 23% in the previous quarter.

Bernstein analysts wrote that the strategy “would be the primary beneficiary” of a Bitcoin price recovery. Analysts believe that Bitcoin has bottomed and could reach $150,000 in 2026, after recently hitting an all-time high above $126,000 in October.

Is Treasury Giant Bitcoin Strategy “Too Big to Fail”?

Strategy’s stock price fell more than 6% on Tuesday to around $154, according to Yahoo Finance. Last year, shares fell more than 50%, despite rising as high as $457. After the re-election of US President Donald Trump in 2024, MSTR reached a high of $474.

In Tuesday’s note, Bernstein analysts maintained an “overweight” rating for the strategy, while reiterating a $450 price target. Monday, the company disclosed an unrealized loss of $17.44 billion in the fourth quarter, indicating a decline in the value of its Bitcoin holdings.

Recently, the company accumulated a $2.25 billion “U.S. dollar reserve” to effectively prepay dividends, a move some analysts called prudent. Yet others have warned that Strategy’s potential delisting from MSCI indexes could lead to outflows of billions of dollars.

Traders on Myriad, a prediction marketplace owned by Decryptthe parent company of Dastan, planned a 17% chance On Tuesday, this strategy will sell Bitcoin this year.

Bitcoin gains momentum as traders seek confirmation

In a similar vein, Bernstein analysts described Strategy’s cash reserves as “a fortress.” They added that Strategy could continue to accumulate Bitcoin using preferred stocks, which could become more attractive as dividend-paying products if interest rates fall.

Strategy currently manages $830 million in annual dividends, which could further worry investors if Bitcoin falls below Strategy’s average purchase price of $75,000, the analysts wrote. However, they called those fears unwarranted, given the size of Strategy’s stock and the convertible debt obligations that are still several years away.

Nonetheless, analysts described the company’s potential delisting from MSCI indexes as a short-term overhang, as well as increased stock dilution.