Best Supporting Actress Oscars 2026 Predictions: Nominees and Winner

Last year, Zoe Saldaña dominated awards season before winning Best Supporting Actress, but the Oscars 2026 could be a very different year for the category. There are already some wonderful, hard-to-win performances at the 98th Academy Awards, and I’m thrilled to be able to chronicle the race for Rant screen once again.

Historically, this category almost always goes to someone without an Oscar trophy. There is only five Best Supporting Actress Oscar winners in history who were previous Oscar winners: Shelley Winters in 1965 (won in 1959), Helen Hayes in 1970 (won Best Actress in 1931/1932), Ingrid Bergman in 1974 (won Best Actress in 1944 and 1956), Maggie Smith in 1978 (won Best Actress in 1969) and Diane Wiest in 1994 (won by 1986).

This trend seems likely to continue in 2026, as most of the contenders for Best Supporting Actress have never won an Oscar before, despite having been in this industry for years, if not decades. A few are even former nominees who missed out on a chance to win.

There’s also a good mix of “new names” for Academy voters to consider, as well as several strong narratives and campaigns that could move the rankings. Here’s the current landscape for Best Supporting Actress, but check back often as I’ll update it as Oscar season continues to unfold.

Favorites for Best Supporting Actress nominations

As this race really heats up thanks to a flurry of recent releases, one anticipated player has been confirmed, Kate Hudson (Song sung in blue), will not argue hereand rather campaign in the Best Actress. This opens the field a bit as I give my first set of predictions for the 2026 Best Supporting Actress Oscar nominees.

Even if no one saw Villain: for good Again, Ariana Grande tops the rankings for best supporting actress. She already received a nomination in this category last year for her perfect portrayal of Glinda.

The musically gifted performer is expected to have an even more complex performance as Glinda, thanks to Villain: for goodthe story. And with the film making some changes to flesh out her arc from the musical, it’s reasonable to think that Grande will impress voters once again.

Then there’s the double dose of One battle after another performers: Teyana Taylor and Regina Hall. It’s difficult to judge at the moment which actress is in the better position, but both are firmly in the conversation for this category. Taylor’s portrayal of Perfidia is big and powerful, while Hall’s Deandra is a bit more subtle.. Both are great and deserve a spot.

The question is whether one or the other will emerge as favorite and stand out from the other. Perfidia is the more spectacular role, and Taylor does so much with her limited screen time. But Hall has a longer acting career and a potential narrative that could move her forward. There’s even a chance they both take a back seat to Chase Infiniti if she doesn’t campaign for Best Actress.

The smashing machine may not have landed as big as A24 hoped in theaters, but the film and its performances are still firmly entrenched in the Oscar mix. Emily Blunt goes for the fences with her portrayal of Dawn in the film, and the drama and very moving moments it offers make it memorable.

It should also help Blunt that she recently broke through with the Academy. She was nominated in this category two years ago for Oppenheimerand even though she didn’t win then, the somewhat chaotic role here could give her a chance to make another run. A24 and Blunt will have to play the rest of awards season smart, though, because it could get lost in the shuffle.

For last place, I give Elle Fanning the edge for her performance in Sentimental value. As she’s about to hit the headlines Predator: Badlands November 7 is the same day that Joachim Trier’s acclaimed drama is released. She plays a smaller role than the rest of the cast, but she left an impression on those who saw it.

ScreenRant‘s Graeme Guttmann teased it as much in his 10/10 Sentimental value review, as he noted the actress receives a few “showcase moments” as budding star Rachel Kemp. I feel some uncertainty about this prediction at the moment, as I’m not sure Fanning is the right choice for a supporting actress nomination for this film.

Actresses still in the mix

While Fanning could easily score a nomination, the same could be said for the film’s lesser-known Norwegian star, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas​​​​​​. Her role as Agnes is major in the film and places her more directly at the center of the story. It’s just as likely in my mind that she gets the nomination instead of Fanning.

This will be a little easier to assess once the film comes out in a few weeks. Many other artists are also still in the running and hoping to reach the predictions section before Oscar nominations will be announced on January 22, 2026.

Some of the freshest competitors in this race are Gwyneth Paltrow and Odessa A’zion of Marty Supreme. Enthusiastic reactions to the film have primarily focused on Timothée Chalamet’s performance and Josh Safdie’s direction, but these two actresses also impressed from the start.

Paltrow previously won the Academy Award for Best Actress in 1999 for Shakespeare in Love. So if she becomes a bigger contender in this race, she’ll have to overcome the aforementioned bad history of Oscar winners succeeding in this category.

I also think that there is still a chance that one of the actresses in Sinners take part in this race. Hailee Steinfeld and Wunmi Mosaku are the film’s best chances, with Steinfeld is now a long way from his 2011 nomination for Real courage. The love for Ryan Coogler’s film could also translate into this category.

Meanwhile, there are performances tied to other Best Picture contenders that could come along. Emily Watson (Hamnet), Laura Dern (Jay Kelly), Rebecca Ferguson (A house of dynamite), and Thomasin McKenzie (Ann Lee’s will) are hopefuls, as is former winner Jamie Lee Curtis (Ella McKay), even if his film remains unpublished.

Voters also have the option to watch broader genre films. Amy Madigan Weapons her performances put her in contention, while Wake Up Dead Man: A knife-edge mystery could generate a boost for its female stars like Glenn Close and Kerry Washington.

It’s also worth keeping Jennifer Lopez (Kiss of the Spider Woman) and Kirsten Dunst (Roofer) in mind as their films hit theaters this week. Otherwise, Nina Hoss (Hedda), Zoey Deutch (New wave) and Kerry Condon (Form dreams) will need their films to spark more conversations upon release to become bigger contenders.

Predicted winner for Best Supporting Actress

It will certainly be a popular choice for the 2026 Oscars, but Ariana Grande winning Best Supporting Actress seems like a very real possibility once again. She made a big effort last year to try to steal the spotlight from Saldaña and get a victory, but that effort failed.

Now Grande is in a position where She is the favorite. Voters have known since last year that there would be another opportunity to reward the star with an Oscar if she turns in another strong performance in the sequel. There’s no real reason to believe that Grande’s return to Glinda will fail and disappoint.

If this happens when Villain: for good comes out on November 21, then it will become a much more difficult decision. In the meantime, this seems to be Grande’s prize to lose. THE One battle after another actors will have their support, but they could also split votesenabling the passionate support of Wicked to overcome.

For these reasons, I feel pretty confident choosing Grande as the winner of the Oscars 2026 Category Best Supporting Actress. Stay tuned to see if this changes.

ScreenRantAdditional Oscar predictions:

8/10

Location

Los Angeles, California

Dates

March 15, 2026

Website

https://www.oscars.org/