James Cameron is the undisputed king of the box office. Three of the four greatest films of all time belong to him. Only seven films have grossed at least $2 billion at the box office, and three of them were directed by Cameron. Two of them are “Avatar” films and the first “Avatar” remains the highest-grossing film of all time. So there is a certain level of presumed success in the discussion of “Avatar: Fire and Ash.” This is sure to help end 2025 on a good note. The question is, how far will the third “Avatar” film fly?
When it hits theaters next weekend, “Fire and Ash” is expected to gross between $95 million and $115 million in its domestic debut, according to Box Office Theory. This more or less matches previous projections, which had the sequel grossing between $100 million and $130 million (via Deadline). So we really view the $110 million range as the sweet spot here, barring outperformance (which is by no means irrelevant).
As a reminder, “Avatar” opened to $77 million in 2009 before experiencing one of the most impressive box offices of all time thanks to its incredible legs. It ultimately grossed $2.74 billion worldwide when it first aired, and thanks to re-releases, that total has since ballooned to $2.92 billion. With a new re-release, “Avatar” could become the only $3 billion film ever made. Meanwhile, “Avatar: The Way of Water” opened to $134.1 million in 2022 and enjoyed similar success, finishing with $2.32 billion.
That said, a plus-or-minus $100 million opening weekend keeps “Fire and Ash” on track to score another $2 billion hit, if we once again assume it will have long legs and global appeal. For now, there is no reason to think otherwise.
Can Avatar: Fire and Ash give James Cameron a hat trick?
The first two “Avatar” films brought in more than 70% of their revenue internationally. And even though the international box office of Hollywood films has cooled off recently, “Fire and Ash” is the type of film that can still be released around the world very well. In reality, there is no indication that foreign interest in the “Avatar” film series will diminish significantly this time around.
What’s notable is the fact that “Fire and Ash” opens lower than “Way of Water.” Obviously, a lot happened in the 13 years between the first two “Avatar” films, but “Way of Water” generated about 15 percent less than its predecessor globally in terms of original release. Now, “Fire and Ash” is expected to open about 18 percent lower than its predecessor. Is the public cooling off a little on “Avatar”?
Even if it does, we still face a monster hit. Even though the worldwide gross of “Five and Ash” is 20% less than that of “Way of Water”, we are talking about a worldwide success of 1.8 billion dollars. This is good news for Disney, considering the film’s budget is reportedly in the region of $400 million, making “Fire and Ash” one of the most expensive films of all time. Audience reception will naturally be a factor, but Cameron tends to be a crowd pleaser.
Basically, this movie is going to make a lot of money. With January devoid of any significant competition, as titles like “Send Help” and “Greenland 2: Migration” will have relatively limited appeal, it is scheduled for weeks on end. The only real, lingering question is whether it will make enough money to justify “Avatar 4” and “Avatar 5.” But that’s a conversation for another time.
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” will be released in theaters on December 19, 2025.
