The majority of children will be overweight or obese in nine areas of England by 2035, the study watch | Obesity

The majority of children will be overweight or obese in nine regions of England by 2035, according to “deeply worrying” projections showing that children’s obesity rates should worsen in 90% of the country.

More than a third of children in primary schools (36%) are already overweight or obese, depending on figures from the National Government Children’s Program.

The modeling of the Royal Society for Public Health (RSPH), seen by the Guardian, predicts the proportion of 6th year students assigned to four out of 10 (41%) by 2034-35. In total, overweight or obese children’s rates will increase in 136 of the 151 local authority areas (90%) during the next decade, suggests the analysis.

And for the first time since the start of the files, rates should exceed 50% in nine areas of the council, which means that there will be more overweight or obese of 10 and 11 years in these regions than no.

They are Blackpool (54%), Knowsley (52%), Sandwell (52%), Barking and Dagenham (52%), Wolverhampton (51%), Walsall (51%), Newham (51%), Luton (50%) and Nottingham (50%).

In an interview with The Guardian, William Roberts, the director general of the RSPH, said that the causes of the crisis were “varied”, but junk food and low activity levels were “major factors”.

“Obesity in childhood leads to several complex health problems that can last a lifetime,” he said. “These include diabetes, high blood pressure, certain types of cancer and poor mental health. Building children to move and eating healthy more easily is a key element in prevention. ”

Roberts, who had previously held senior positions in the NHS, said: “As a nation, we fail the test on childhood obesity. Our projections show that we are heading in the wrong direction in obesity, with children in some of the most disadvantaged areas that were to be the most affected. ”

The latest data from the national government’s measurement program, which covers the dominant schools, show that the percentage of children leaving overweight or obese primary school was 36% in 2023-24.

An RSPH report, which should be published this week and seen by The Guardian, analyzed the data of the program dating back to 2009-10, when the figure was 33%. The RSPH projects the rate will increase to 39% by 2029-30 and climb to 41% by 2034-35.

The 18 -page report, Playground Rules, calls on the government to encourage higher levels of physical activity in schools, which, according to him, is the key to slowing down the obesity of children.

However, Katharine Jenner, director of the Obesity Health Alliance, said that ministers must also make reforms “to repair the commercial food system which causes an outbreak of child health rate”.

She added: “This is a national problem, but the impact is felt locally – by families, schools and health services already extended. With more than a third of our children, in some areas up to half, projected to be overweight or live with obesity in the years to come, we are faced with longer NHS waiting lists and a generation of children who breathtaking. “

Blackpool should not only have the highest proportion of overweight or obese children in England by 2034-35, but should also have the highest increase in rates over the next decade, according to analysis.

Chris Webb, the Labor MP for Blackpool South, said: “These projections of the RSPH are deeply worrying – but they don’t have to be our future. With good action and investment, we can turn the tendency to obese children and build a healthier blackpool. ”

Webb said that the country’s “broken food system” was to blame. Local initiatives like Growpool, a food culture project in the largest housing in the city, Grange Park, could help, he said.

The project allows people to access healthy and inexpensive foods with a local and sustainable food system that addresses both obesity and poverty, webb said.

“The link between poverty and poor health is undeniable, therefore the work of this government to fight against deep root deprivation is vital,” he added.

However, Cathy Cliff, the coordinator of the Soil Association campaigns, said that children’s obesity rates increased because successive governments had not settled ultra-transformed companies (UPF).

In May, a Guardian investigation revealed how the Rishi Sunak government abandoned legal advice urging retailers to offer agreements on healthy foods after a secret lobbying campaign by UPF companies.

Five days later, the Guardian reported how the government of Keir Starmer delays the launch of a prohibition of undressed advertisements targeting children until 2026, arousing indignation among health activists.

“The British government must use the next food strategy to regulate and tax the most unhealthy foods and facilitate that everyone benefits from a regime at least transformed,” said Cliff.

David Fothergill, president of the community Wellbeing Board of the Association of Local Governments, which represents the local authorities, said that RSPH projections were “austere” and highlighted a “bomb of health time”.

“To effectively combat obesity, advice needs funding to provide targeted support to those who need it most,” he said. “The money collected by the levy of the soft drinking industry should also be reinvested in other programs managed by the Council, including healthy food programs and active game and physical exercise programs.”

The government said it was determined to give each child the best start in life. “This is why we act quickly with sector experts to revise school’s food standards, so each school is supported by the latest nutritional advice,” added a spokesperson. “We are also considering the best way to build physical activity in the life of children and adults as part of our mission to stimulate the health of the nation.”