I see a lot of articles on Trump’s tour on Iran, how is the pressure of Israel, his evolving opinions. I think they are all exaggerated or out of words. As I noted earlier, what pushes Trump here is hunger to participate in a “victory”. It may be better to see it as a typical Trumpian brand exercise. Israel has a product ready to go to the market and they offered Trump the opportunity to slap the name of Trump on it. But even beyond all this, there is something more. The United States wanted to get rid of the Iranian nuclear program for a very long time. We used coercive sanctions. We are involved in spying and sabotage. Barack Obama spent a lot of time concluding a diplomatic agreement to restrict it.
What has always kept the United States remotely are the risks linked to the end of the program or to break its progress by force. Large strategic bombers are vulnerable. They must do several races to drop bombs that will tear in the side of the mountain. There was Hezbollah, the various Iranian attorney in Iraq, the Assad regime in Syria, in Hamas, which had limited capacities but could wreak havoc in Israel. Hezbollah and Hamas were broken in terms of offensive capacity. The Syrian regime has disappeared. Now Israel seems to have complete domination in heaven over all the militarily important parts of Iran.
What all this adds is that the United States has the capacity to destroy critical nuclear installations of Iran in a way that short -term is essentially without risk. They can control bombing missions on Iran with all its aerial defenses. Again, in the short term, it is essentially without risk.
Obviously, wars are unpredictable. They don’t necessarily end when you want. Consider the fact that on October 7, 2023, an overwhelming defeat for Israel, now from the point of view of mid-2025, was an unmized Iran disaster. He set up a chain of events that broke “the resistance axis” which was the source of its regional power and is now at the mercy of the United States and Israel. You don’t know how wars will take place. But at the moment, Israel has created the circumstances that allow Donald Trump a “victory” without risk of immense magnitude. This is the problem here. Book if this is or not. I’m talking about why we are suddenly here. Why two or three days ago, the White House was clear that they did not get involved and suddenly everything changed. The evolution here is that the Israelis have created an opportunity that Trump simply cannot resist. A great victory with very little short -term risks. All the strength is on the one hand of the question and nothing grows in the opposite direction. It is less an evolution of views than simple physics.
Of course, there is more than the short term. But that’s not how Trump thinks.
