Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida predictions, odds, picks for UFC 321

The UFC 321 main card is finally here and we’re ready to bring you a betting prediction and pick for this upcoming tilt in the heavyweight division. No. 2 in the ranking Alexander Volkov of Russia will face the rising number 5 Jailton Almeida from Brazil. Check out our UFC odds series for the Volkov-Almeida prediction and pick.

Alexander Volkov (38-11) has gone 12-5 in his UFC career since 2016. He notably went on a four-fight winning streak and defeated opponents like Sergei Pavlovich, earning him his No. 2 ranking. He lost his last fight to Ciryl Gane, but will be determined to earn a title shot with a victory here. Volkov is 6-foot-7 with a reach of 80 inches.

Jailton Almeida (22-3) has gone an impressive 8-1 since joining the UFC in 2022. After losing his first UFC loss to Curtis Blaydes, Almeida bounced back with first-round finishes over Alexandr Romanov and Serghei Spivac. Now he will look to secure a top contender spot with a win. Almeida is 6 feet 3 inches tall. 79 inch reach.

Here are the UFC 321 odds, courtesy of DraftKings.

UFC 321 Odds: Alexander Volkov-Jailton Almeida Odds

Alexander Volkov: +164

Jailton Almeida: -198

Over 1.5 turns: -130

Less than 1.5 turns: +100

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Why Alexander Volkov Will win

• Last fight: (L) Ciryl Gane – S DEC
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 24 KO/TKO, 4 SAT

Alexander Volkov could very well have fought in the heavyweight main event against Tom Aspinall if he had managed to do a little more against Ciryl Gane in his last fight. Volkov managed to beat Gane 105-48 over the course of three rounds, but faced a notable gap in the fight despite his successful submission defense. Still, it was a great performance because he could have gotten the judges’ approval just as easily as not.

Volkov has become very dangerous in his last few fights and it seems he does his best by using size to his advantage and putting his opponents on their backs. He has an imposing presence at 6ft 7in and throwing 4.97 significant strikes per minute, he is a formidable striker for opponents to face.

If Volkov is able to thwart takedown attempts much like Curtis Blaydes did in his win over Almeida, he should have an easier time standing and kickboxing against a much stiffer opponent. Volkov also does a great job working from the clinch and will be very dangerous with his knees in the middle and elbows out of the break.

Why Jailton Almeida Will win

• Last fight: (W) Serghei Spivac – TKO (punches, R1)
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 13 SAT

Jailton Almeida dominated a talented grappler like Serghei Spivac quite easily in his last fight, proving that he can have the best grappling game in the entire division. With 13 submissions under his belt, Almeida does a great job of breaking his position and getting extremely low for the takedown. While Volkov boasts a strong takedown defense rate of 72%, Almeida has a habit of making strong grapplers look irrelevant once he grabs them.

Volkov will certainly be a tough opponent to defeat, but Almeida doesn’t shy away from a challenge and this will be his clearest path to victory considering how big the wrestling gap between them is. Volkov has lost three previous fights by submission, his most recent to Tom Aspinall, so expect Almeida’s grappling to be a focal point of this fight.

If Almeida is able to force Volkov to the ground, especially in the later rounds once he tires, this will be Almeida’s fight to lose from a grappling standpoint. On the feet, Almeida’s power is constantly a threat and he is always looking to improve his striking, but he may want to avoid going strictly against a strong kickboxer like Volkov.

Final Alexander Volkov-Jailton Almeida Prediction and choice

This is a great heavyweight clash featuring a classic kickboxer and a dangerous submission artist. People have been sleeping on Alexander Volkov for a while, but his recent track record speaks for itself and he was a small margin away from beating Ciryl Gane and earning his title shot. Almeida, on the other hand, has been able to subdue most of the opponents in front of him and will have a new challenge in Volkov when these two meet.

Ultimately, I don’t see a fight where Almeida wouldn’t be able to put Volkov on the ground with his size and off-balance while wrestling. I see Almeida taking over quickly once Volkov tries to get back to his feet, ending this fight with a likely submission victory.

For our final prediction, we will use Jailton Almeida as our betting favorite. However, don’t be surprised if Volkov is able to fight the fight early and turn this into a dogfight in the third round.

Final Alexander Volkov-Jailton Almeida Prediction and pick: Jailton Almeida (-198); MORE THAN 1.5 turns (-130)