Sunday, Jannik Sinner n ° 1 and the n ° 2 Carlos Alcaraz will be played for the title of Wimbledon, only a month after the two clashed during an epic battle at the French Open.
Alcaraz won in Paris and is the double title champion in Wimbledon. Will this give him the advantage? Our experts weigh on how everyone could win.
What can Alcaraz do to defeat Sinner?
D’Arcy maine: Alcaraz proved that he could beat Sinner when the stakes are the highest, and he knows what it takes to win at Wimbledon. After defeating Taylor Fritz in the semi-finals on Friday, Fritz completed the versatility of Alcaraz, “his ability to gain in many ways”, and how he can make adjustments on the fly.
These features were essential in the victory of Alcaraz against Sinner at the Open of France and they will be just as precious on Sunday. Undeeped during its five major major finals, Alcaraz has a remarkable calculation and fight, especially to be only 22 years old, and if he is able to continue to find answers to everything that the sinner makes his way using his amazing variety, it is his match to win.
Bill Connelly: Same thing I said before the French Open final: continue to go. Before this match, the bar was mainly “hit the winners on more than 20% of your points, and you beat Sinner”, and after hitting only 12.9% in the first two sets, Alcaraz was 21.7% in the last three (25.0% in the fifth set).
If you don’t play a big game and go for the winners, Sinner will put you in the dust. Honestly, Alcaraz was not incredibly sophisticated in this tournament, dropping at least one set in four of the six games and clearing this 20% bar twice (during his two consecutive victories, of course). But it is good enough to climb on occasion – five slam finals, five victories – so we assume that he will be ready to swing large.
Simon Cambers: Do what it does: find a way to win, with the required strategy. The sinner will strike hard, on the two wings, so the key for Alcaraz is to use his variety. Its drop shot will be important, as is its use of service and the volley, if and when the opportunity will arise. Overall, he must serve as well as against Fritz in the semi-finals; If he does it, he will pressure his second service so much, which is vital because the sinner will hammer everything he has a glance. Alcaraz has the advantage in the movement on the grass, so he will seek to exploit this, manifesting himself when he can. If he does it, he will be in control.
What can we do to defeat Alcaraz?
Maine: Trust him. His elbow shows no sign of injury at this stage, so it will be largely mental for the sinner on Sunday. This is his first Wimbledon final and, of course, it is a little over a month of what happened in Paris. There will naturally be nerves and he will probably have doubts, especially since he is well aware that he has not defeated Alcaraz since 2023.
How can he prevent these doubts from slipping and what will he do if they come into play? As he did when he had a break in the third set on Friday against Novak Djokovic and his forehand started to betray him (briefly), the sinner continued to fight, winning points in the long gatherings and suffocating all the signs of the momentum of Djokovic to win five consecutive games. He will have to bring the same mentality – and more – against Alcaraz.
With the exception of his fourth round match against Grigor Dimitrov, Sinner was mainly unstoppable and has not lost a set throughout the fortnight. He has the game and the capacity, and his movement and his game of legs continue to improve on the grass at each match. He was apparently everywhere In the court against Djokovic. If he can bring the same level he showed during most of the tournament and be also resilient and mentally strong, he has a chance.
Connelly: Dominate on service. While Alcaraz served better and better during the tournament – he won 64% of his service points in the first three laps and 76% in the next three against a classified competition – his return game has passed. In the five sets he abandoned in Wimbledon, he essentially allowed opponents to serve as effectively as him. This was particularly true in the semi-finals against Fritz, in which Fritz won 83% of his points of service while winning the second set, and 74% while sending the fourth set to an equality break.
Against Djokovic, perhaps the best turner of all time, in the semi-finals, the sinner won his first service 74% of the time and won 77% of his points of service. He almost beat Alcaraz at the French Open despite the fact that he only reached 54% of his first services last month, and he will save a lot of problems if he can increase this number at more normal levels and control the game on the service.
Cambers: Remember how far it has reached this point and say that it is the oppressed. The pressure is probably more on Alcaraz to win a third consecutive title than for the sinner to perform during his first Wimbledon final, which should reduce any mental stress that will inevitably come. Sinner’s base blows are so hard that he can hit anyone, and if he can take a look at enough services, he will really want his chances.
What is fascinating is how fast the sinner raised the shoulders of the huge disappointment to have three match points against Alcaraz in the final at Roland Garros, to reach the Wimbledon final. In some ways, perhaps banging your elbow against Dimitrov in fact helped it; Instead of worrying about the mental luggage in Paris, he focuses on his body and lets tennis flow.
If he returns the first to serve Alcaraz, he will have a great chance here. The grass is difficult this year, after all the dry time, which will also help it. Of course, he will have to serve well, and if he can also manifest himself a little more than him, he will keep Alcaraz pinned.
Who will win?
Pam Shriver: The winner will be the one who feels physically his best day, after two weeks of tennis exhausting pressure from the field. Obviously, Alcaraz has the top psychologically at the moment, but we have seen many stages of the three major rivalries over the 20 years, so expect the same thing in this exceptional rivalry.
Alcaraz has the advantage both on the grass and the rivalry at the moment, but the sinner can start to return this on Sunday, especially if his elbow is fine and he feels more comfortable moving on the grass at the end of the fortnight. Tennis is fortunate to have these two athletes who direct male tennis, and I can’t wait to look. Roland Garros’ final is an impossible act to follow, but let’s see what these two phenomena can produce.
Maine: The sinner has more motivation than ever, and probably more confidence and endurance now than at the French Open, but the experience will finally help Alcaraz in the tightest moments of the match. Although I do not think that it exceeds the brand of five hours like the Paris final, I think it could easily go to a decisive whole, and it promotes Alcaraz, which has a ridiculous record of 14-1 in five sets and is 10-1 in matches which spend the three hours and 50 minutes (compared to 0-7 to Sinner). Alcaraz in five dramatic sets and filled with reflections.
Connelly: On natural surfaces, where Alcaraz had a clear advantage over the sinner (and everyone in the world), I have the impression that the sinner invented a lot of ground in a short time. He actually won a point more than Alcaraz in their Battle of France, and although he was injured and wobbly – and lucky – against Dimitrov in the fourth round, he has been practically automatically automatically.
The Alcaraz ceiling is higher than anything we have ever seen, and the way he spoke of absolute perfection at the exact time he needed in Paris was impressive. But the sinner is so stable, and he still seems to improve. Sinner in four.
Cambers: I chose Alcaraz at the beginning, which was hardly a section, taking into account his two titles in a row here. But he has shown each turn why he is the best player in the world on the grass, he moves better than anyone, he incredibly mixes things and he has this charisma which makes the crowd on his side from the first ball.
The sinner is a phenomenal player and no one strikes the ball stronger. But on the grass, the subtleties required more in the wheelhouse of Alcaraz. I can see that it is long – of course – but the fact that he has won their last five games is a huge psychological advantage for him. Even if Sinner has done brilliantly to raise his shoulders of what happened in Paris, Alcaraz has the mental boost to win match points in his pocket, ready to withdraw if and when he needs it. It could go five, but I would say Alcaraz in four tight sets.
