At the bottom of a Mexican cave, a stalagmite revealed that Mayan civilization faced repeated droughts so extreme that they may have changed history.
The researchers discovered that precipitation of the wet season have failed for years at the same time, including an amazing drought of 13 years, leaving cultures at risk and unfinished monuments. These climatic shocks align with the collapse of the cities of the south of Maya and the decline of the dynasties, offering the clearest evidence to date that the climate disaster has played a central role in the fall of Maya.
Long -term droughts and the collapse of the Mayans
A Mexican cave has preserved evidence of extreme droughts which may have played a central role in the fall of classic Mayan civilization. In a stalagmite, the researchers found chemical traces showing a devastating dry period which lasted 13 years, as well as several other droughts which continued for more than three years.
By studying the isotopes of oxygen in the stalagmite, a team led by the University of Cambridge has reconstructed precipitation models for humid and dry dry seasons between 871 and 1021 CE. This time of time rides the classic terminal, the era of decline often called Mayan collapse. This is the first time that scientists have been able to distinguish seasonal precipitation conditions during this critical period.
Abandonment and decline through the region
During the classic terminal, the Southern Mayan cities built from limestone were abandoned, the dissolved dynasties and one of the great cultures of the ancient world have moved to the north, losing a large part of its political and economic influence.
The Yucatán cave record revealed eight distinct droughts which extended for at least three years each, with the 13 consecutive years of the most extreme duration. These results align with archaeological evidence showing that the monument building and political activity in the main centers of the North, in particular Chiched Itzá, stopped at various times during this period of climate tension.
A new framework for climate studies
Since these droughts can be dated with exceptional precision, they provide researchers with a new powerful framework to examine the relationship between climate change and human history in the region. The study was published in the journal Scientific advances.
“This period in the history of Maya has been a cause of fascination for centuries,” said Dr. Daniel H. James, who conducted research while he was a doctoral student in the Cambridge Earth Sciences Department. “There have been several theories as to what caused collapse, such as the evolution of commercial roads, war or severe drought, on the basis of the archaeological evidence that Mayan has left.
Combine climatic archives with archeology
From the 1990s, researchers began to reconstruct climate recordings with those left by the Mayans, such as the dates they recorded on key monuments, to show that a series of droughts during the classic terminal has probably contributed to massive socio-political upheavals in Maya society.
Now James and his co-authors of the United Kingdom, the United States and Mexico have used the chemical fingerprints contained in the stalagmites of a cave in northern Yucatán to put these droughts in a much clearer concentration.
Extraction of climatic signals from caves training
The stalagmites are formed when the water flows from the ceiling of a cave, and the minerals contained in the water develop in large deposits on the ground of the cave. By dating and analyzing the layers of oxygen isotopes in the stalagmite, the researchers extracted very detailed information on the climate in the classic terminal period. Previous research has measured the isotopes of the oxygen contained in the sediments of the lake to determine the severity of the drought, but the sediments of the lake do not contain enough details to identify the climatic conditions during a given year on a particular site.
“It was not possible to directly compare the history of individual Mayan sites with what we knew before on the climate file,” James, who is now a postdoctoral researcher at the University College London (UCL). “The lake sediments are excellent when you want to look at the overview, but the stalagmites allow us to access the details with a fine grain that we lacked.”
Monitoring of wet and dry seasons in detail
Previous research on stalagmites has determined the annual quantities of average precipitation during the classic terminal, but the team led by Cambridge has now been able to go further, and isolate the information from the humid and individual dry seasons, thanks to relatively thick annual layers (approximately 1 mm) in the stalagmite used in this study. The specific oxygen isotopes in each layer are an indirect indicator of the drought of the wet season.
“Knowing the average annual precipitation does not tell you as much as knowing what every individual wet season looked like,” said James. “Being able to isolate the rainy season allows us to accurately follow the duration of the drought of the wet season, which determines whether cultures succeed or fail.”
Droughts serious enough to disrupt life
According to the information contained in the stalagmite, eight wet seasonal droughts lasted at least three years between 871 and 1021 CE. The longest drought of the period lasted 13 years. Even with the water management techniques that the Mayans have had, a drought that would have had a long time would have had major impacts on the company.
The climatic information contained in the stalagmite aligns with the dates written by the Mayans on their monuments. During periods of prolonged and severe drought, an inscription dating on sites such as Chichen Itzá stopped completely.
Survival on the ceremony
“This does not necessarily mean that Maya abandoned Chichen Itzá during these periods of severe drought, but it is likely that they had more immediate things to worry than to build monuments, as if the cultures on which they leaned would succeed or not,” said James.
Researchers say that stalagmites in this cave and others in the region could be essential to assemble the puzzle of the classic terminal period.
Future Information of Cave Records
“In addition to what stalagmites can tell us about this period in Maya’s history, they could also be able to tell us about the frequency and gravity of tropical storms, for example,” said James. “As a case study for fine grain comparisons between climate and historical data, it is exciting to be able to apply methods generally associated with the deeper past with relatively recent history.”
Reference: “Classic Mayan response to multi-year seasonal droughts in the northwest of Yucatán, Mexico” by Daniel H. James, Stacy A. Carolin, Sebastian FM Breitenbach, Julie A. Hoggarth, Fernanda lases-Herández, Erin A. Endsley, Jason H. Curtis, Christina D. Christopher J. Ottley, Alexander A. Iveson, James Ul Baldini, Mark Brenner, Gideon M. Henderson and David A. Hodell, August 13, 2025, Scientific advances.
Two: 10.1126 / SCIADV.ADW7661
The research was partly supported by the National Geographic Society and the Leverhulme Trust.
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