Regression is only a word, Amigos. It should not be a dirty word, and sometimes it can be a happy word. Smart Fantasy football managers are still trying to identify the aberrant values of the past, in order to pay attention to what is likely to happen. If a player has run unreasonably hot or cold during the previous season, we know that production is likely to develop in the next campaign.
Lester Bangs tried to tell us a long time ago: you will meet everyone again during their long trip in the middle.
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Note, if you identify the right positive aberrant values (or avoid the right negatives), you have a first step to win your league. Today’s mission is therefore important – let’s find some statistical aberrant values of the 2024 season and try to understand how to project these situations in the future.
QB Lamar Jackson, Ravens
Jackson did not win the MVP in 2024, but he surely had his best season, establishing career records in several categories (pass yards, Touché passes, note QB, report to interception; to name only a few). But its percentage of 8.6% touch will be difficult to repeat – consider that it had rates of 4.2, 5.2 and 5.3 in the previous three seasons.
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Rotation: Although Jackson has probably just had what will be the best season in his career, this also reflects a talented player reaching the total game command – like many athletes, Jackson found a peak year in his 27 -year season. It is stupid to expect a major drop given the offensive in charge of Baltimore and the clever diagrams of Oc Todd Monken, and Jackson will rightly be the QB1 on many (maybe most) of the draft advice. Josh Allen would never admit it publicly, but he would surely exchange actors in a second.
RB Saquon Barkley, Eagles
You surely know the statistics now – Barkley had 482 keys last year (including the playoffs), a gigantic number. But there is another statistics that I cannot get out of my mind – the 15 affected Barkley touches came with an astonishing average of 29.4 yards last year, and he did not have a single score of the 1 meter line (it is a Tash push territory for Jalen Hurts).
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Rotation: Barkley enters his eighth season in the league, and he missed at least three games in four of these seasons. It is a breeze that he will lose some of the touches last year, and the long touch rate will not repeat either. I understand that it is not fun to discolor a player who has just went to the monster season that Barkley had, but we have to skate where the washer is heading, not where it took place. In the first round, I would prefer young backs like Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs in front of Barkley.
RB James Cook, Bills
According to the statistics of efficiency, Cook had a season similar to its career path last year – its YPC increased slightly, its success rate fell slightly. His yards by reception and the yards per target have both fallen, and he had 12 catches less than the previous season. But Cook landed as RB8 due to the purity he ran with affected – he increased 18 times last year, after six modest affected the previous season.
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Rotation: Cook is not satisfied with her contract, a situation that will likely be likely before the opening week – although it always deserves to be mentioned. But it is extremely doubtful that Cook can match the number of touchs of last year, since Buffalo has a mobile and athletic quarter to Josh Allen and the back of the sub-study capable of Ray Davis and Ty Johnson. And although Cook is the obvious head of this rear field, it is not really built to be a battle horse – it checks 190 pounds and on average a little less than 16 keys per game during the last two seasons. Walk carefully here.
QB Jordan Love, Packers
Love went from QB5 to QB17 last year, but this was mainly motivated by volume. A multitude of its main efficiency statistics have really improved – love had a better touch rate, a better rate of bags and a healthy leap in YPA. Two missed matches contributed to his fantastic drop, although Love also inserted a modest QB18 in points per game.
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Rotation: The packers ranked 16th as a successful success rate in 2023, but they slipped to the 31st last year – perhaps because love suffered an MCL sprain at the end of the loss of opening of the season in Brazil. The Yahoo market gives you a QB16 sticker on love this summer, which obviously presents an opportunity for profit. Packers are unlikely to be heavy again.
Wr Tyreek Hill, dolphins
He became very early for Hill in 2024 – he did not have a single reception at more than 30 meters after week 1. We saw an accident landing from Hill’s efficiency (Son YPC dropped by 3.3 yards) and a volume (he lost 48 targets, 38 captures and seven affected from the previous season). Hill also missed Pro Bowl for the first time during his nine -year career.
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Rotation: The one -year hill crisis has had many factors – Tua Tagovailoa has dealt with concussion problems, and Miami’s offensive line did not play well, which discouraged the team from calling Deep Pass Plays. Unfortunately for Hill, Tagovailoa remains a risk of injury and the line still seems doubtful. We must also ask ourselves of Hill’s commitment (sometimes it seems that he is unhappy in Miami) and his level of competence (he is a veterinarian of 10 years before his 31 year season). Even with the market offering a discount on Hill, this is not a part that I am likely to do.
If you want to bet on a return to this passing game, focus on Jaylen Waddle.
Te Trey McBride, Cardinals
Some people are allergic to pollen, bees or certain types of drugs. McBride apparently holds an allergy to the touch. Despite 221 captures during the three seasons of the NFL, he only caught six touched passes. It is not for a lack of opportunity – McBride saw 21 red zone targets last year, the second plus among the tight ends. But only one of these closed passes made a touchdown.
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Rotation: Perhaps the cardinals will become more creative with McBride this year – consider that he had a hit race last season. But it is possible that his lack of score is directly linked to QB Kyler Murray, who is undersized with the position and could have trouble seeing the field correctly when things are condensed at the goal line. My reservations on Murray will not allow me to label McBride a proactive choice, but I understand why certain fantasy managers will target McBride, focusing on a high volume floor and the probability of a positive touch regression.
