There is more and more concern for another event of rain and significant flood this week, this time along the Côte du Gulf, of what could become the next tropical system of the Atlantic basin.
The potential threat of Storm’s floods is only the last of what was a summer full of deadly and devastating floods.
Currently, the potential storm is a large area of showers and thunderstorms above the Florida peninsula. He will derive west in the Gulf in the middle of the week where he has an average chance of becoming tropical depression, according to National Hurricane Center.
If he can bring together a more defined traffic center and strengthen more, he would become Dexter, the fourth named Storm of the Atlantic Hurricane season – a brand has generally reached mid -August.
If he forms, he would do it right next to the Gulf coast – a recall that storms are more likely to form in warm and shallow waters closer to the earth in July. Hot water acts as fuel so that storms form and strengthen and ocean surface temperatures are much higher when the system should follow.
The conditions do not seem favorable for a strong storm at the moment, because this system will probably not have much time to ripen on the water and will also have to overcome the hostile winds of higher level which can tear the storms.
But some renowned forecast models predict a more organized system, potentially a tropical storm, in the Gulf by the end of the week. The result could depend on the system track. If he dives further south and spends more time on the Gulf, he could become stronger if he can withstand the higher level winds in his trip.
Even if it is not named, this system will bring tropical showers to Florida and in certain parts of the Gulf coast in the coming days. This increase in wet tropical air helped dip Daytona beach with 2.25 inches of rain on Tuesday, breaking its previous 2 -inch daily record fixed on July 15, 1935.
There is a level 2 risk of 4 in 4 flooding in certain parts of the Florida peninsula, notably Tampa and Orlando on Wednesday morning while the system draws from tropical humidity and improves precipitation rates and flood potential. The most intense storms are probably in the afternoon and evening while the system drifts through the state. The precipitation totals could vary between 1 and 3 inches.
But the most serious flood threat will come later this week and on weekends while the system derives west in certain parts of the Côte du Gulf du Center-Nord, including Alabama, Mississippi and Southeast Louisiana. The heavy rains could be durable once it begins, maybe on Wednesday evening.
Sudden floods are the main concern, especially if the rain bands follow several times in the same areas, which could occur if the system moves slowly and persists.
A threat of level 2 out of 4 for flood rains is in place Thursday for southeast Louisiana, notably New Orleans and certain parts of coastal Alabama and Mississippi. Friday, the threat increases at level 3 of 4 for certain parts of Louisiana, notably red stick on fears that heavy rains can persist. Several inches of rain are possible in the worst scenarios.
It is clear that heavy rains and floods will threaten a large part of the Côte du Gulf du Center-Nord, but exactly where and how remaining in question. Everything will depend on the strength of the system, where it follows and how quickly it moves – questions that will become sorted in the coming days.
This story has been updated with additional information.
