After almost three years of development and public speculation, it is finally time to see if “Superman” by Warner Bros./DC Studios can launch a brand new cinematographic universe and revitalize a kind of superhero which is no longer the giant of the infallible box-office in the 2010s.
It will start with what should be a big opening weekend, but the initiates of the industry do not seem to agree on the size they think.
The Box Office Tracker NRG provides an opening weekend of $ 130 million for “Superman”, while Warner Bros. provides a much more conservative $ 100 million. The rival distributors that spoke to Thewrap Project of an opening of the fork from 120 to 125 million dollars, while two analysts predict an opening similar to the $ 118 million of the last film by director James Gunn “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 ”, which brought in $ 845 million worldwide.
Others are more optimistic, awaiting largely positive criticisms and the glowing praise of fans who attended preview projections to generate traffic without an appointment and bring the opening of $ 150 million closer, a figure that would put it among the first 5 highest openings for a DC film before inflation, with the record held by “Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice” at 166 million Dollars in 2016.
It is a sign of the quantity of uncertainty in the place where the upper edge of the superman box office is located on the current theatrical market, as well as on the quantity of control surrounds this film and what it could mean for the future of Warner Bros. and DC studios. And with the fate of a new planned cinematographic universe depending on a massive blow, the issues are high sky.
Gunn, for his part, tries to minimize all the conversations on what the “Superman” bar must erase so that it is labeled a success at the box office.
“It is not the most risky effort in the world,” Gunn told GQ. “Is there something that rolls on it? Yes, but it is not as tall as people do. They hear these figures that the film only succeeds if that makes $ 700 million or something and it’s just complete and absolute.
Maybe so. A theatrical final total in the range of $ 600 million worldwide, but with generalized praise, which has led to discovery and adoption by more long -term people would be better for DC than what happened to “Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice”.
This film has its fair share of fans, but turned out to be so polarizing in 2016 that it brought in $ 874 million worldwide, but had a national total of $ 330 million despite opening up to $ 166 million, for a multiple of 1.98x. In comparison, “Deadpool & Wolverine” had a multiple of about 3x, and the studios generally want their blockbusters to be 2x and more.
Fortunately for Gunn and Warner Bros., the buzz for “Superman” could peak at the right time. The criticisms were especially positive towards the film with an 85% rotten score of tomatoes at the time of writing. While some criticisms have been leveled in a story described as being overloaded with ideas and characters, the praise were hampered on David Corens for his performance as a serious, sympathetic and slightly stupid superman, as well as the Rachel Brosnahan and Nicholas Hoult co-stars as Lane and Lex Luthor.
Meanwhile, the social media reactions of DC fans and bloggers invited to advance projections shone in their praise, with a particular excitement around the escape performance of Edi Gathegi as a superhero of technological genius M. Terrific, the last of a long line of obscure superheroes to be raised by Gunn.
This buzz had an impact in dollars and hundred. According to data provided by a source of Rivale studio, the preventing of tickets for “Superman” last Sunday was 5% behind the presale for Sunday before the release of “Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania”, which obtained an opening of $ 106 million in February 2023.
On Tuesday, when criticisms were published, the presale increased to 38% ahead of “Quantumania”.
“Many people were waiting to know if the film was good, and now that they did it, everything resumed,” said the rival director.
If they continue to pick up, “Superman” could take advantage of the strong late presses and the accessible traffic in place that “Jurassic World Rebirth” obtained, feeding its interior opening with $ 147 million over five days. The Universal blockbuster is currently scheduled for a second weekend of 40 to 45 million dollars.
“Although these blockbusters have feared, it seems in fact that they improve the profile and potential of everyone’s box office,” said Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian.
The argument advanced against the idea that the fatigue of superheroes sets up at the box office is that, although the genre is no longer guaranteed a large number of the public arranged to see a superhero on the big screen, they will reveal itself if the reception is strong. The world series of $ 1.33 billion in “Deadpool & Wolverine” of last year gave credibility to this, but the genre took a hit after the weakness of $ 382 million in “Thunderbolts” “, a film which was well received by criticism and the public but which was widely ignored by those who are not yet fans of Marvel Hardcore.
But Superman is not Black Widow or Bucky Barnes or The Red Guardian. It is the most famous superhero ever created. And if a widely appreciated film the presenting can restore interest in other types of DC films, this will make people from Warner Bros. To prepare to make larger swings on original films like “One Battle After Other” and “The Bride!” Much easier.
