Best choices at n ° 5, 21, 43 and 53 on the basis of the data model

Putting myself in place of the front office of Utah Jazz is a fun exercise.

It looks great when my predictions are good: I would have absolutely done almost everything that is in my power to exchange for Donovan Mitchell in 2017, just as jazz did. I had lined strongly for Desmond Bane in 2020, when the team rather looked for Udoka Azubuike. It has also proven to be a specific call.

But I had a lot of trouble too, and I always think it can be educational. I preferred Elie Okobo to Grayson Allen in 2018, and Okobo only played two NBA seasons while Allen is a useful player still today. Last season, I liked the Cody Williams jazz selection. He did not at all look at the part of a choice n ° 10 in his recruit year.

In response to this last disappointment, in particular, I turned to more thoughts based on numbers to try to do things this year.

Who should jazz accept the draft of the NBA on Wednesday and Thursday? Here is what I would do, in the best of cases:

N ° 5: VJ Edgecombe, Baylor (or, more probably, Tre Johnson, Texas)

The ratings say that there is a 11% chance that the Baylor’s VJ Edgecombe is ignored with choices n ° 3 and n ° 4, therefore being available for selection at No. 5.

In this case, I think jazz should write it.

Edgecombe, recruit n ° 4 global of the school last year, came to Baylor and showed why he was such a high recruit. The 6 -foot 4 inch goalkeeper was not so dominant with a ball, but used his athletics to have an impact on the game very importantly: obtaining flights, obtaining blocks and ravaging on the ground. Offensively, I think it is just to say that he is a player with a moderate floor and a high ceiling: he did not pull well at the university (33% out of 3 38% of the mid -range), and probably profiles as a player out of ball, but athletics allows you to imagine it more.

To be honest, the package reminds me of Donovan Mitchell a little out of his draft. There is another caretaker that you probably want to be bigger, but has athletics to become something more. Like Mitchell, EdgeCombe absolutely closes all his pre-Rôti interviews, including the NBA combines. In short, it is just to put first, great, great and rare to see in a 19 -year -old child.

I do not think he will be Mitchell, who knew one of the large recruit seasons. But I think he has the funny competitive motivation that Mitchell makes, and will absolutely work behind to become as good as possible in the NBA.

Statistics models also generally like EdgeCombe, thanks to high stocks and solid production offensively in the first year.

But it is likely that Edgecombe will not be available when the choice of jazz at 5 years old. And then? I embossed between Tre Johnson and Kon Knueppel there. In the end, my model prefers Johnson (although it is worth noting that most of the statistics based models, like that of Kevin Pelton, seem to prefer Knuppel). I think the two are high -level high -level starters in their first NBBA, with a solid defensive presence and Johnson being more a dangerous movement shooter.

I’m going to take Johnson essentially because I am a little more confident in his soil, he could have a little higher ceiling, and the model tells me.

Ace Bailey’s game scares me, his behavior outside the field doubly. He wants to be a star in his recruit year, but his game is not in a place where I think he will be one. Jeremiah fears that the university basketball player classified by the model last year – I cannot reach No. 5 with him. It is so raw in all ways but one: mark.

N ° 21: Asa Newell, Georgia

My model has Newell as a perspective n ° 2 this year, above the names much more praised. So why may he slip in the 1920s?

Well, the Intel says that the NBA is concerned about its size: is it an advantage or a center? He plays more like a switched five, but is the size of a power striker at only 6-9. He does not get well either, doing 29% of the three this year.

But I think the vision is there. Its offensive production was impressive for Georgia last year – it appears in the right places and ends so well. Defensively, it moves very well for an advantage or a center, which means that it can play a role in many defensive patterns.

The comparison I saw to get the most out of the best is Brandon Clarke, but others indicate John Collins. I could see more Obi Toppin.

Look: I don’t buy Newell as the second best prospect of 2025. It’s crazy. But I think that with movement, athletics and general basketball IQ, I buy it to be a good player for a long time, and it is an excellent pick-up with n ° 21, if it fell there. Originally profiled as back guys, he has been a little slipped since.

N ° 43: Adou Thiero, Arkansas

Dude, jazz never needs a defensive playmaker jostled like Thiero.

Thiero is long: 6-6, but a wingspan of 7 feet. He weighs 220. He moves with great athletics all around the courtyard. He obtains flights, transforms defense into an offense. I suspect that if he had to play in the summer league of jazz, fans would like each element of his efforts and his passion for this purpose.

And then offensively … Well, he can drive a little and finish with authority. Man likes to soak and can soak in all kinds of ways. It is not good enough with the ball in his hands that you like him, but with athletics, there may be room to get there.

The reason why it is a second round choice is the shot. It’s quite far. He does not pull often and did only 28% last year when he did. He does not become an NBA player if he does not improve it.

However, I like to make second round games on great defenders with great athletics in the hope that you can teach them to shoot. If it works, as he did with Lu Dort, Toumani Camara or Herb Jones, you have a very good player.

Thiero is generally projected in simulated projects to be selected between n ° 30 and n ° 40, so n ° 43 would be a bit of a fall, but not huge. It is n ° 32 in the projections of the model.

N ° 53: Javon Small, Virginie-Western

The main drawback of Javon Small is there in the name: he has only 6-1, without any particular length. This will undoubtedly hurt him in a large way.

But it has what could be the most effective skill for this size of the NBA player: the sweater-up or the rider step by step. Small takes a lot and uses a low center of gravity to make room to take them. It is probably the brand brand of his game, but he has also just produced at a very high level at both ends for the Virginia-Western and throughout his university career, making a lot of big blows. He also fights in defensively and obtains a lot of flights.

All guys like it turns out to be TJ McConnell or Jalen Brunson. Most, in fact, do not. But the model was sufficiently impressed by production to classify it 44th despite age and size. I personally bet that he is not an NBA player, but as a guy probably on a two -way contract at the end of the second round, I think it is worth discovering if something is translatable.