I’m old enough to remember when the SEC only handled three NCAA bids three times in a four-year span (2013-2016). Old enough to remember it was Conference No. 7, a few decimal places ahead of the Atlantic 10, in 2012-13. Even old enough to remember when Missouri and Texas A&M, not to mention Texas and Oklahoma, were in the Big 12.
So even though last season’s monumental 14 deals were a perfect storm, the fortunes of SEC basketball had been on an upward trend for some time. That’s why the league’s offer average has climbed above even the 18-team Big Ten since the COVID shutdown in 2020. Hoops has gotten so good in the SEC that its performance on the field is an afterthought (wink, wink…).
What the conference can’t repeat, however, is its double 1 seeds, double 2 seeds, and double Final Four entries (Auburn and national champion Florida) of 2025. That kind of dominance is unsustainable, leaving us with an SEC that is simply great instead of generational. It’s also not a bad place to land the plane.
The SEC begins conference play on January 3.
Final Four contenders
Vanderbilt Commodores
Alabama Crimson Tide
The SEC will be hard-pressed to field a single Final Four participant, much less repeat its double dip from last season. However, the fact that his leading candidate is Vanderbilt is an equally good story.
Probable tournament teams
Tennessee Volunteers
Arkansas Razorbacks
Florida Alligators
Auburn Tigers
Kentucky Wildcats
It must be a little disappointing for the folks in Gainesville and Lexington to have their local teams in the second tier of SEC contenders. But the season is long and all five schools could radically change their fortunes.
Possible tournament teams
LSU Tigers
Oklahoma Early
Texas Longhorns
Texas A&M Aggies
A year ago, LSU (14-18, 3-15 conference) was one of two failures in the SEC. A likely must-win year for Matt McMahon has produced a 12-1 non-conference slate thus far – albeit against a sub-250 schedule. The Tigers’ “real” season begins today at fellow Texas A&M.
Sleeper team
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia lost NBA first-round pick Asa Newell but is back in the thick of an NCAA bid. The Bulldogs, like LSU, went 12-1 in non-conference, with wins over Georgia Tech, Xavier, Florida State and Cincinnati being solid, if unspectacular. A league record of .500 should be enough for an NCAA return date.
Long shots
Missouri Tigers
Ole Miss Rebels
Both have underperformed a bit compared to preseason polls and will struggle to post the SEC record needed to dance.
Maybe next year
Mississippi State Bulldogs
South Carolina Gamecocks
The 2024 6-seed Gamecocks (26-8, 13-5 SEC) look like an outlier. As for Mississippi State, the Bulldogs had some non-conference opportunities but couldn’t close the deal when it counted.
Key games to watch
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January 7: Alabama and Vanderbilt, a first showdown with the SEC that could set the tone for the conference race.
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January 24: Auburn, Florida, a Final Four rematch, which the Gators could use to propel them to a repeat.
