Will the dominance of the Oklahoma City Thunder crowd the NBA trade market?

By Kirk GoldsberryDecember 10, 2:42 p.m. UTC • 7 minutes

After last week’s reports that Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks were actively discussing his future in Milwaukee, the NBA’s discourse has shifted entirely to trade machine mode. But this new blockbuster saga will unfold within front offices that must deal with two major league-wide trends: first, the evolution of the market under the new collective bargaining agreement of the NBA, and second, the emergence of the Oklahoma City Thunder as a big favorite for the championship.

The stage is set, but the scene is shifted. The Greek drama rippling through the NBA has three main characters: the Bucks organization, Giannis himself and the 29 other teams in a position to mobilize for his services.

The Bucks have been in steady decline since winning the title in 2021, slowly turning the league’s best team into a thin, patchy mess. Thanks to a series of big draft busts, stifled coaching hires, stupid trades and the largest waiver and stretch move in NBA history, the team is struggling, and given its recent track record, it’s hard to predict how this organization will handle its biggest potential trade since trading Kareem 50 years ago. Will this do the right thing? I’m not sure it deserves the benefit of the doubt at this point.

Then there is Antetokounmpo himself, who is still in his prime and wants to compete for championships. The extent to which Giannis dictates his next destination is perhaps the most important variable in the emerging market: If he puts his thumb on the scale to go to New York, for example, it could seriously damage Milwaukee’s leverage in negotiations with other teams. This brings us to the rest of the league.

Under traditional circumstances, the trade market for a two-time MVP in his prime would be vast and teams would be lining up to land him. After all, superstars don’t grow on trees, and the chance to acquire one of the most dominant forces in the league is an opportunity that only comes around once every ten years.

But the mid-2020s are not a traditional situation. The CBA makes trades trickier than ever, to the point where just designing a permitted trade is difficult, especially during the season. And its hyper-punitive overspending rules have increased the relative value of first-round picks while increasing the risks associated with overpaying supermax players to the wrong side of 30. That’s very relevant here, especially given Antetokounmpo’s recent injuries — and the current calf strain that will likely sideline him for another two to three weeks.

Yet when you talk to people around the league, there’s another factor that almost always comes up in conversations about the Giannis market: the Thunder. That’s because the defending champions seem downright inevitable. They are currently 23-1, winners of 15 straight games, and on pace to break the league record for net rating and winning percentage. They did all of this while missing key starters for extended periods of time.

In other words: At this point in the 2023-24 season, the Celtics were title favorites with +370 odds on FanDuel; the highest odds belonged to the Nuggets, at +400. A year ago on this day, Boston led the rankings with odds of +200, followed by OKC at +500. As of Tuesday, the Thunder’s title odds for the 2025-26 season were +130, with the second-best team, Denver, coming in at +700. Their status as heavy favorites is as solid as anything the NBA has seen in years.

OKC has become such a juggernaut this season that some potential contenders, especially those in the West, may not be so eager to mash the “win now” button. NBA teams are asking themselves some version of the question Zach Lowe asked me on his show last week: “When should you try to play the Thunder?”

On the one hand, it doesn’t seem like an ideal time, especially if coming to OKC with your best shot now means weakening your future position. In a more open league, teams might convince themselves they’re “Giannis’s” from the promised land, but for now, the promised land already appears to be occupied by a buzzsaw in Oklahoma.

On the other hand, this might be the best chance teams will get. Oklahoma City is set to receive the Clippers’ first-round pick in the loaded 2026 draft, not to mention the plethora of other future draft assets to come over the next few years. His best players are all in their 20s or approaching. His cap sheet is meticulously crafted and his player development program is best in class. There is every reason to believe that the Thunder will only put more distance between themselves and the rest of the league.

This calculation looms large for both San Antonio and Houston, two teams that are good now but also have many young players who have yet to reach their peak. Sure, Milwaukee might want to start a rebuild with Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, Amen Thompson or Alperen Sengun, but the Spurs and Rockets might instead let their current cores develop. Rather than trying to land a killing blow right now, they might be able to throw several punches at OKC over the next few years.

The math for Eastern Conference teams is somewhat different. While the teams atop the West crane their necks to watch OKC, the race to win the East is as wide open as any I can remember. Teams like Miami and New York don’t have as much young talent as the Spurs and Rockets, but they have something those teams don’t: a relatively clear path to the conference championship. These teams, along with the Pistons and everyone else in the Eastern Conference, need to ask themselves if they should go all-in just to TO DO the Finals and decide if adding Giannis would give them a chance to strike against OKC.

If you zoom out beyond the Giannis market, the Thunder also illustrate a broader tectonic shift within the league. There are three main ways to build a team in the NBA: the draft, trades, and free agency. But the current ACA has distorted the pie chart of team building. By making trade more difficult, it weakened the trading market. His fearsome aprons also make overpaid star talent in free agency riskier than ever, meaning:in a zero-sum team building game– that the relative value of future draft picks and “cost-controlled” young talent increases by default. Make no mistake, these assets have always been vital, but their importance is increasing thanks to the current context.

If you want proof of this, just compare the history of the two cities at the heart of this story. The Bucks and Thunder were built around MVP talent, but the similarities end there.

Incredibly, Giannis is the only player on Milwaukee’s current roster to be drafted by the team. It’s absurd, but it’s also one of the main reasons why he failed to create depth around himself at this key phase of his peak. Instead, it relies on exchange and free will. It didn’t work out in the long run – and the team’s massive failures in the draft are a cautionary tale. Look at this dirt. One scout told me he considers the Bucks’ recent history to be “probably the worst in the NBA.”

In contrast, OKC’s ability to surround its centerpiece with elite young talents like Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren is brought to you by Sam Presti’s endless supply of draft capital, as well as the team’s reliable scouting and player development apparatus. Sure, OKC turned to free agency to sign Isaiah Hartenstein and used the trade market to acquire Alex Caruso, but the Thunder’s commitment to the draft is the foundation of its success.

In a copycat league, the Thunder have become the new model. OKC’s strong roster of young talent was largely built with patience and a long-term perspective, and the entire league knows it. Any team that wants to dethrone these champions must be deep, healthy and versatile. In an age of aprons and complex trade restrictions, draft picks are the best way to build something lasting. Teams that use the draft effectively to develop local stars are in much better condition and have much longer runways than teams that attempt to rely on trades and free agency.

But here’s the thing: The NBA is also a “cautionary” league, and the current struggles of teams like the Clippers are also relevant. Six years after sending a war chest of youth to Oklahoma for Paul George, the legacy of that deal still casts a long shadow. Perhaps Milwaukee will convince a trade partner to part with a number of future assets to land one of the most talented players on the planet. But there may be no silver bullet. The league’s aspiration is to be the next Thunder, not the next Clippers.

Kirk Goldsberry

Kirk Goldsberry is the New York Times bestselling author of “Sprawlball.” He previously served as vice president of strategic research for the San Antonio Spurs and senior analyst for Team USA Basketball. He is also executive director of the Business of Sports Institute at the University of Texas. He lives in Austin.