The body of a single Israeli hostage remains in Gaza, close to realizing a key part of President Donald Trump’s 20-point ceasefire plan for the enclave, but major obstacles exist to a planned second phase.
Doubts remain about whether negotiators will be able to overcome these obstacles, even as they face renewed pressure to move to phase 2 – a step intended to prevent any return to the high levels of violence that preceded the ceasefire.
Trump indicated last week that Phase 2 would begin “very soon,” without giving a more specific timetable. Axios reported Thursday that the White House hoped to announce the second phase before Christmas and unveil the enclave’s new governance structure, citing two U.S. officials and a Western source directly involved in the process.
Phase 2 of Trump’s plan calls for the creation of a new governing mechanism in Gaza, the disarmament of Hamas and the formation of an international stabilization force, known as the ISF, which would take over from the Israel Defense Forces currently occupying parts of the Gaza Strip.
Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, whose country has played a key role in a series of international negotiations, said on Saturday that the talks were at a “critical” time. Mediators are working together to advance the next phase of the ceasefire, he told a panel at the Doha Forum conference in Qatar.
“A ceasefire cannot be completed without a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces. [until] There is stability in Gaza, people can come and go, which is not the case today,” he said.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty told the conference that the international stabilization force was needed “as soon as possible on the ground”, while Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide said measures needed to be put in place this month, warning that the current ceasefire “cannot last for several more weeks in its current phase”.
While the international community hopes for progress, the trajectory of the ceasefire so far underscores both its fragile gains and its lingering vulnerabilities.
Since the ceasefire took effect on October 10, 20 live hostages and the remains of 27 others have been returned to Israel. The body of the last hostage, Ran Gvili, a 24-year-old police officer killed during the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, has not yet been found despite search efforts that lasted a week. Israeli authorities have regularly released Palestinian prisoners and detainees – alive and dead – as part of this exchange.
Israel has repeatedly said all hostages must be returned before a phase two deal, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week emphasizing the need for an “intensive and immediate effort” to make that commitment a reality.
Israel agreed to end its attack on the Gaza Strip during the ceasefire, but outbreaks and violence have persisted, with Israeli strikes killing more than 350 people since the ceasefire began, pushing the death toll in the enclave past 70,000, according to Palestinian Health Ministry figures.
The first phase also included a commitment to increase the flow of aid to Gaza, but U.N. experts say the number of trucks allowed in never reached the agreed target of 600 per day.
Israel said the Rafah crossing in southern Gaza would soon be reopened to allow Palestinians to enter Egypt, but it would not reopen the crossing in either direction – another commitment under the deal – until Gvili’s remains were returned.
And as Phase 1 moves forward, analysts warn that Phase 2 presents a host of complex challenges, from security provisions to competing governance requirements, that could slow or even stall the process.
Negotiators are “trying to resolve circles that simply cannot be resolved,” said HA Hellyer, a senior research associate at the Royal United Services Institute, a defense and security think tank in London.
He questions whether an international stabilization force could actually dismantle Hamas, a goal Israel has failed to achieve after two years of a “brutal” military operation. While Trump’s peace plan states that Hamas will disarm, the group reasserted its control over Gaza during the first phase of the ceasefire and has shown no immediate signs of disarming.
Disarming Hamas through military intervention is “not exactly something that any other power would be interested in,” he told NBC News.
And regarding Gaza governance, Hellyer added: “Trump can create his peace council,” referring to the group that would sit at the top of Gaza’s government structure under Trump’s plan, but “you can’t just implement these things on the ground without the cooperation of the population, unless you just want to make it a new type of occupation.” »
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Saturday that negotiations on the Gaza stabilization force remained ongoing, including over its mandate and rules of engagement, and that its main goal should be to separate Israelis and Palestinians along the border.
“Thousands of details and questions are in place,” Fidan said. “I think once we deploy the ISPs, the rest will come. »
But Fawaz Gerges, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, echoed Hellyer’s concerns, noting that so far, “no state has agreed to support its forces in Gaza and potentially and ultimately enter into confrontation with Hamas.”
Gerges also feared that “we will never see the actual implementation of what Phase 2 is supposed to be,” adding that it was “an illusion” to call what is happening in Gaza a ceasefire, “because Palestinians, especially civilians, continue to be killed daily.”
“Even though the humanitarian situation of the Palestinians has improved somewhat, it remains catastrophic,” he said.
