Stephen King is arguably greater than he has ever been. Edgar Wright is a beloved director. Glen Powell is one of our most promising rising movie stars. This all sounds like the equation for a winning film, doesn’t it? That’s certainly Paramount’s hope when it comes to “The Running Man,” a new adaptation of King’s dystopian story of the same name. The question is: can Wright’s remake avoid becoming a box office failure like the original did in 1987? For now, it’s hard to say.
“The Running Man,” which is more of a rehash than a remake, is eyeing a domestic release of between $19 million and $28 million when it arrives next weekend, according to Box Office Theory. It will open against “Now You See Me: Now You Don’t,” which is expected to gross $12 million to $17 million in its debut. Oz Perkins’ horror film “Keeper” is also coming, with an opening $6 million to $11 million on the line. It’s going to be a relatively busy weekend.
What’s interesting about this film is that expectations varied wildly. The folks at Box Office Pro brought in between $40 million and $50 million, based on early October projections. These estimates have clearly fallen, but the expected range for this film is still a little variable at the moment. For Paramount, the difference between $20 million and $40 million is, to say the least, enormous.
Starring Arnold Schwarzenegger, 1987’s “The Running Man” grossed just $38.1 million on a $27 million budget. It has since become something of a cult film, but it was by no means a success. The X-factor when it comes to Wright’s version is budget. The trailers certainly made it look large scale and expensive.
The success or failure of the Running Man will depend on its budget
The film is set in the near future and focuses on a top-rated show in which contestants must survive 30 days while being hunted by professional assassins. The impressive cast also includes William H. Macy (“Shameless”), Lee Pace (“Foundation”), Emilia Jones (“Coda”), Michael Cera (“Superbad”), Jayme Lawson (“Sinners”), Colman Domingo (“Rustin”) and Josh Brolin (“Weapons”).
As of this writing, the budget has not been revealed, and it is THE determining factor. If Paramount spent around $50 million, a $20 million opening would be acceptable, especially if overseas audiences show up. What if they spent over $100 million? They will have to pray for an overperformance or very long legs. Fortunately, if word of mouth is good, this can be more of a marathon than a sprint, running through December.
As a movie star, Powell is on the rise. He helped “Twisters” gross $81 million last year, a record for a disaster film, on its way to $372.2 million worldwide. Alongside Sydney Sweeney, he also helped take “Anyone But You” to over $200 million worldwide, a huge surprise at the time.
This will, however, be Powell’s biggest test as a movie star yet. This film rests largely on his shoulders. That said, Wright is also a filmmaker with a loyal following, having directed cult films such as “Shaun of the Dead” and “Hot Fuzz.” Commercially, however, he never made a blockbuster as a director. “Baby Driver,” with $227 million worldwide against a budget of $34 million, remains his biggest success. With $20.5 million, it’s also its biggest opening weekend yet. Can this help him take it to the next level? We’ll see.
“The Running Man” hits theaters on November 14, 2025.
