COP30: can the Brazilian summit get the negotiations back on track?

A decade after the historic COP21 summit in Paris, world leaders are set to gather again for the latest United Nations climate conference. But with the totemic target of 1.5°C already out of reach and even the less ambitious target of 2°C looking like a distant dream, optimism is lacking.

Based on current country commitments, the United Nations Environment Program estimates that the world is on track to achieve warming of 2.3 to 2.5°C this century. Climate scientists say the 30th UN Conference of the Parties in Belém, Brazil, is key to resetting the trajectory of global warming, with oceans, forests and polar ice caps near the tipping point. Concrete actions are needed to move the world away from fossil fuels and find the $1.3 trillion per year needed for the poorest countries by 2030 to slow climate change and adapt to its impacts.

“The climate debate is clearly under threat, not only from political decisions, but also from economic, financial and trade decisions,” says Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, global head of climate and energy at WWF. “This makes it one of the most important COPs since 2009 and as important as Paris – but in a very different way. »

In reality, negotiators’ expectations are low. A bold multilateral deal like the one agreed in Paris is inconceivable in today’s fragmented political climate.

Last year’s COP29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, ended in acrimony, with richer countries committing to a much lower financial plan than poorer countries had hoped for. Confidence in the COP process is now so low that there are growing questions about whether the current model remains fit for purpose.

“Private financing is not appearing, countries want to go back on their promises to abandon fossil fuels and no one respects the NDCs. [national climate pledges]”, says Claudio Angelo of the Brazilian climate NGO Observatório do Clima. “The mood towards climate action has become very sour.”

Divisions resulting from trade wars and geopolitical conflicts are spilling over into climate diplomacy, with US President Donald Trump leading a backlash against climate action. Trump withdrew the United States from the Paris Agreement and is vetoing measures to limit fossil fuels while encouraging other countries to follow suit. On October 17, the International Maritime Organization delayed formal approval of a plan to reduce shipping emissions after Trump threatened sanctions against countries supporting the plan.

Slow economic growth, rising costs of living and hostile populism make it even more difficult for leaders to implement climate-friendly policies. “2025 is just a bad year to save the world,” says Angelo.

With U.S. support fading, Europe was expected to play a bigger role in climate diplomacy, but leaders are divided over prioritizing defense spending, trade conflicts and energy costs.

Even in host Brazil, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – who campaigned on saving the rainforest – has endorsed the construction of new roads in the Amazon and oil exploration in the Amazon basin ahead of next year’s elections.

Brazil’s decision to bring the COP to Belém was also highly controversial. The first-ever Amazon COP is intended to be a reminder of the people and forests affected by climate change and a symbol of the bold vision needed to save the world. The Environment Ministry says more Indigenous people will attend COP30 than any other.

But most participants view the move as unwise. Limited hotel space has sent accommodation prices skyrocketing and sent NGOs, diplomats and businesses scrambling to find tents, shipping containers and hammocks to sleep in.

With the UN also limiting accreditations, what should be the “implementation COP” could instead become the “empty COP”.

“Organizations that had eight accreditations last year only got two this time,” says Carla Cardenas of the Rights and Resources Initiative, a coalition of nonprofits working to secure land rights for indigenous people. She says there are fears that participation by civil society groups holding leaders to account will be limited, while oil and gas lobbies with larger budgets will be unaffected.

On the eve of the summit, some signs of positive dynamics are emerging. Fears that too few leaders would be present to achieve a quorum were eased, with figures such as Britain’s Keir Starmer making last-minute decisions about whether to travel.

And as multilateralism crumbles, Brazil – with its reputation as a builder of global bridges – might just be the ideal host to hold the creaking climate diplomatic process together.

The presidency is taking a pragmatic approach to the negotiations, saying there will likely be no headline-grabbing cover text this time around. Instead of making headlines, Brazil wants to focus on implementing existing agreements.

Although the world should not expect major international breakthroughs in Belém, there is still room for cities, regions and businesses – which are increasingly taking climate action – to step up their efforts, says Thomas Hale of the University of Oxford. “Coalitions of the willing,” groups of states that come together to announce environmental initiatives, can still have a significant impact.

“Blockers like the US can stay away, but that’s not where the wave of action is and that’s not where the real COP action will be,” he says. “We are not going to see at the COP an international decision that would take us radically forward, but it can still provide the framework for many positive initiatives to see the light of day.”