WASHINGTON — Democrats are bracing for the possible retirement of Speaker Emeritus Nancy Pelosi, one of the party’s most powerful, popular and effective leaders, who served as President Donald Trump’s chief antagonist during his first term and quietly advised Democrats as they take on Trump in his second term.
She is expected to make an announcement about her future after Tuesday’s election, when voters will consider a ballot measure, known as “Proposition 50,” that would redraw the state’s congressional lines. Pelosi is a prominent supporter of the plan, which Democrats hope will win them several seats in next year’s midterm elections.
Multiple Democratic sources in her home state and in Congress told NBC News they believe the 85-year-old California Democrat will choose not to run again in 2026 after nearly four decades representing her San Francisco-based district.
“I’d like to see her stay another 10 years,” said a California Democrat. “I think she’s missing out. She’s going to come out with an overwhelming majority of Prop 50, and what a crowning achievement for her to do that.”
Her departure — if it happens — would end an era in Congress, where her unmatched skills as a legislative strategist, vote counter and fundraiser helped make Pelosi the first woman to win the speaker’s gavel, and it would spark an even more furious scramble for her coveted House seat.
Fueling speculation that she might retire, Pelosi took no action to counter two Democrats who entered the district’s primary, despite having raised more than $2 million this election cycle so far and having a war chest of $1.5 million, according to campaign records. The Democrats, who would face Pelosi if she decides to fight for another term, are state Sen. Scott Wiener and wealthy former tech executive Saikat Chakrabarti, who previously served as chief of staff to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y.
Pelosi has hinted she may leave. At a recent meeting of California’s Democratic delegation on Capitol Hill, she told colleagues she looked forward to seeing Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., sworn in as the first black speaker of the House — if she is still allowed to speak, she joked, according to a source in the room.
“I think she’s getting ready to leave the stage,” another source, an aide to House Democratic leadership, said of Pelosi. “We won’t fully appreciate the time we spent with her” until she’s gone.
In political circles in the Bay Area, the tea leaves are increasingly pointing towards his resignation, according to a Democratic elected official in the region. “Most people think it is very unlikely that she will run for another term,” the official said.
Pelosi spokesman Ian Krager declined to say whether she would seek re-election to a full 20th term in Congress.
“Speaker Pelosi is fully focused on her mission to win California’s 50-Yes special election on Tuesday,” Krager said, referring to the slogan used by supporters of the ballot initiative. “She urges all Californians to join this mission on the path to taking back the House from Democrats.”
The other sources requested anonymity to speak on a sensitive subject, emphasizing the influence Pelosi still wields over Democratic politics. But Democrats are not unanimous on his departure.
“I feel like she’s running again for a lot of reasons. She should hang it up, but I think she thinks the caucus needs her,” said a former Democratic leadership aide. “I also think she wants to be part of history if Leader Jeffries becomes the first Black person to speak in the House after the midterm elections. She wants to be seen as part of this special moment.”
In an interview last month with the San Francisco Examiner, Pelosi said she wouldn’t decide whether to run for reelection until after Tuesday’s election, where California voters will decide the fate of Proposition 50, Gov. Gavin Newsom and Democrats’ plan to redraw the Golden State’s congressional districts to gain more seats for the party. This is a direct response to mid-decade Republican redistricting efforts in Texas and other red states.
She said Prop 50 is her No. 1 priority at the moment.
“Here’s the thing: We have to win the House. If you’re talking about ‘no kings,’ we have to win the House to stop this. We won’t be able to do a lot of things, but we can stop a lot of the poison he’s putting in there, and the best antidote to poison is to win elections,” she told the Examiner.
“There’s a lot to play for on this because this is the path to winning the House,” Pelosi continued. “We will win the House no matter what, but by winning big, and we want to win big on November 4.”
During her two decades as Democratic leader in the House of Representatives – from 2002 to 2022 – Pelosi has run her caucus with a velvet glove. She could be tough: one of her favorite sayings was, “I eat nails for breakfast.”
But she knew how to handle both the stick and the carrot. When then-Rep. Marcia Fudge, D-Ohio, seen as an insurgent challenge to Pelosi for speaker in 2018, Pelosi invited Fudge into her office for a private meeting, warned her against all the fundraising and travel required for the job and offered her a position as chair of a subcommittee focused on elections and voting rights. Fudge dropped his challenge and supported Pelosi.
Colleagues say Pelosi hasn’t shared her plans with them, but they have hailed her as a historic figure — she was the first female speaker of the House and served in the top job twice — who left her mark on Congress and the country.
“Nancy Pelosi is a stateswoman who, as they say about Lincoln, is of the times,” said progressive Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., another Bay Area Democrat. “Generations to come will read his contributions to America.”
Ashley Etienne, who previously served as communications director for Pelosi and Vice President Kamala Harris, said she has not spoken to the former speaker about her future plans. She praised Pelosi for skillfully leading opposition to Republican Presidents George W. Bush and Trump, but also for being a pragmatist who made deals with them “in the nation’s interest.”
Pelosi teamed with Bush on the 2008 bank bailout, on clean energy and fighting AIDS, and supported the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal signed by Trump.
“Pelosi’s loss is bigger than the Democratic Party’s loss; it’s a loss for the institution. She’s an object lesson. No matter what side of the political aisle you’re on, if you’re smart, you take lots of notes,” said Etienne, who led the impeachment message for Pelosi and the Democrats during Trump’s first term.
“She not only redefined the office of president, but she also demonstrated what true, strong, principled leadership looks like, male or female, but certainly as a woman,” she added. “Pelosi is a beast. She’s the best to ever do it, the most successful speaker in American history.”
But Pelosi angered some of her fellow Democrats, particularly those most loyal to then-President Joe Biden, when she publicly and privately pressured him to give up the party’s nomination following a disastrous debate against Trump.
And although she represents a district historically among the most liberal in the country, Pelosi has at times battled the progressive wing of her congressional caucus in the nearly quarter-century since she first won a Democratic leadership spot. Those fights included scrapes with progressive “Squad” member Ocasio-Cortez.
It’s not yet clear how a race involving Chakrabarti, Wiener, Pelosi and perhaps others would play out, but there is a potential parallel to recent political history that she would no doubt like to avoid.
In 2018, Ocasio-Cortez knocked out Rep. Joe Crowley, D-N.Y., then a rising star and seen as a possible successor to Pelosi, in a primary. Ocasio-Cortez portrayed Crowley as too out of the district and too moderate for his constituents.
