Don’t be surprised if… Jaxon Smith-Njigba hits 2,000 yards, TreVeyon Henderson breaks out

Every week in the NFL is its own story – full of surprises, both positive and negative – and Fantasy Football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe going forward. Maybe we can help you. If any of these thoughts come true…don’t be surprised!

NOTE: All mentions of fantasy points are for PPR formats unless otherwise noted.

Seattle Seahawks WR Cooper Kupp, no longer among fantasy football’s top options, has already caught 1,947 passing yards for the 2021 Los Angeles Rams. He narrowly missed the all-time single-season mark of 1,964 receiving yards achieved by Detroit Lions WR Calvin Johnson during the 2012 season. Others have threatened to reach 2,000 receiving yards in recent seasons, including Minnesota Vikings star Justin Jefferson and Miami Dolphins star Tyreek Hill. Cincinnati Bengals star Ja’Marr Chase led the league with 1,708 receiving yards last season.

Don’t be surprised if…Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba becomes first to 2,000 receiving yards

Here we go again with another “Chase for 2K”. With nearly 300 receiving yards over the past two games, Smith-Njigba, in his third season with Ohio State, leads the NFL with 696 receiving yards, on pace for 1,972 yards. Some might wonder if Smith-Njigba, who finished 12th with 1,130 receiving yards last season, can continue this strong start with quarterback Sam Darnold overachieving, with two solid running backs and with Kupp a factor in the passing game. The answer is yes, it can.

First of all, stop thinking Darnold is doing too much. As with Tampa Bay Buccaneers starter Baker Mayfield, what happened early in a player’s career becomes, at some point, irrelevant. Darnold was fantastic for the Vikings last season, throwing 35 touchdown passes for 4,319 passing yards. Last season’s No. 9 fantasy QB enters Week 7 as the No. 12 option, but if we remove a disappointing Week 1, he’s eighth. Darnold is third in passing yards. He’s pretty good.

When it comes to the running game, fantasy managers may have noticed that neither Kenneth Walker III nor Zach Charbonnet is really thriving. The Seahawks rank 24th in rushing yards per game, although they are sixth in rushing attempts. The passing game is alive and well. The running game is not. Meanwhile, Kupp, with four receptions per game, isn’t much of a factor. When Darnold throws, Smith-Njigba is targeted more than 36 percent of the time. The calendar is also favorable. It’s time to have a 2,000 yard receiver.

Other WR/TE thoughts that should come as no surprise:

• Speaking of Mayfield, who is a legitimate contender for NFL MVP no matter which of his receivers are available. Veteran WR Mike Evans (hamstring), could play this week. He missed three games and is still expected to reach 1,000 receiving yards for the 13th time in 13 seasons. Watch TE Cade Otton. His numbers aren’t exciting, with 15 receptions in six games, but nine of those catches have come in the last fortnight. Otton thrived last season when injuries forced Evans out. Over a three-game span around the same time in October/November, Otton caught 25 passes for 258 yards and three touchdowns. He can take that back.

• Speaking of 2,000 receiving yards, a few may remember the first 2025 version of the “Don’t Be Surprised” series on January 7, when someone predicted that Rams WR Puka Nacua would be the first to reach that mark. In five games, Nacua was able to achieve this. He then injured his ankle in Week 6 and it seems likely he won’t play in Sunday’s game in London. That would take 2,000 yards out of the equation. Too bad. Perhaps this author was talking about Smith-Njigba instead. Watch Nacua come back in Week 9 and finish as a top-three WR anyway.

• Nacua, Smith-Njigba and Lions star Amon-Ra St. Brown enter Week 7 as the top three wide receivers in PPR scoring. They have something else in common: Everyone is off in Week 8. Plan ahead, because six teams are off in Week 8. Don’t be surprised if 99% of Fantasy managers ignore this information until next Tuesday and we see a lot of Malik Washington and Hunter Renfrow types (you don’t want that) in lineups.

• Philadelphia Eagles TE Dallas Goedert leads the position with five touchdowns, which is awesome, but probably makes his hapless WR teammate AJ Brown cringe every time it happens. Brown wants more love. So does DeVonta Smith. Well, everyone does it, really. Yet Goedert has missed 15 games over the past three seasons. Add him in, but he’s unlikely to lead tight ends in touchdowns. How about the Dolphins reveal Darren Waller? He has four scores in three games, but thanks to the team’s odd load management schedule, he only has six receptions that weren’t touchdowns. In a way, he’s this season’s Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (now teammate), who converted nine of 32 receptions into touchdowns for the Tennessee Titans last season.

You’d think the Patriots would give the Ohio State rookie a legitimate chance after longtime starter Rhamondre Stevenson rushed 13 times for 18 yards against the New Orleans Saints last week. Stevenson scored on a few short touchdowns in Week 5 at Buffalo, but he’s averaging 3.1 yards per carry overall and still has a fumbling issue. Henderson fared slightly better against the Saints, with 36 yards on 10 touches, but he looks better. He is better. Henderson is scheduled to roam the Tennessee Titans this week.

Other thoughts from RB that should come as no surprise:

• We continue to discuss the New York Giants star Tax House Cam because it sure looks like he’s an RB1 option. In fact, he might be a better option than the Eagles star Saquon Barkley. Skattebo fought his way to three touchdowns against the Eagles last week. Barkley has three touchdown passes in six games and, after surpassing 2,000 rushing yards last season, he is on pace to have fewer than 1,000 this season. Skattebo has over 20 touches in three straight weeks, and his team isn’t going all out at quarterback, which helps Skattebo. In fact, Skattebo could lead running backs in touchdown passes this season. He’s just two behind Jonathan Taylor despite having 33 fewer rushing attempts.

• Barkley will surpass 1,000 rushing yards this season, assuming he plays around 15 games, but managers expected a lot more. It’s not a particularly good time to trade for him, but these current numbers are too ugly. The Eagles need to establish the running game – and soon. They should. Barkley was all over my “Do Not Draft” list this season, but I didn’t expect him to go from 22.2 PPR points per game to 14.9.

• Kansas City Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco has looked better in recent weeks, culminating in his 51 rushing yards in the win over the Detroit Lions. He needs more volume because the Chiefs in no way want quarterback Patrick Mahomes to lead the team in rushing yards, which he still is. This is dangerous for Mahomes and says too much about the running backs. Watch Pacheco get more volume this week against the Las Vegas Raiders. Maybe he can become an occasional flex player.

Don’t be surprised if…New Orleans Saints QB Spencer Rattler soon becomes a safer QB2

Few pay attention to Rattler in standard ESPN leagues, as he remains available in 96.3% of leagues. Rattler is the No. 18 fantasy QB so far, but among the most popular passers on the lists are Carson Wentz, Cam Ward and Joe Burrow (65%, but mostly in IR slots). Rattler averages 14.3 points. That’s not great, and maybe he achieved that because he’s only thrown one interception in six games (Alex Smith’s old method of providing fantasy value, sort of), but look at the schedule. The Saints will face the Bears and Chicago Buccaneers in the next two games. These defenses allow a myriad of fantasy points for QBs. Rattler is competent, WR Chris Olave is terrific and, once again, six quarterbacks are bye in Week 8. Playing Rattler in Week 8 is more than reasonable.

Other QB thoughts that should come as no surprise:

• As a lefty myself, I love Sunday’s game between Dolphins lefty Tua Tagovailoa and Cleveland Browns lefty Dillon Gabriel. This is the first matchup between starting quarterbacks who don’t throw with their right hands since… 2006, when Michael Vick faced Chris Simms. How is this possible? Well, look around you. There aren’t many left-handed people. Jim Zorn played a long, long time ago. I like Atlanta Falcons lefty Michael Penix Jr., the best among current fantasy ports, but the numbers aren’t there yet. Excuse me, I’m now going to watch some Ken Stabler highlights.

• New York Jets starter Justin Fields has scored more than 25 points in three of his five starts. It’s so impressive. Did your fantasy starter achieve this goal? Probably not, since only Mahomes can match that number. Josh Allen, Mayfield and Jalen Hurts, currently second, third and fourth in QB points, have combined for three outings at 25 points. OK, so Fields was horrible in Week 7. We all admit it. He only threw for 45 yards. Ignore it. It’s been a week. The Jets don’t have a Tyler Shough or Shedeur Sanders hiding, nor a Kirk Cousins ​​or Kenny Pickett. It’s Tyrod Taylor. Fields is an exceptional runner. He might not score 25 points this week, but he’s not losing his job, and he really shouldn’t be at the top of the list of most abandoned QBs since he really is (most of the time) more than serviceable for fantasy…and in Week 8 he faces the Bengals.