Why San Marino must lose (heavily) to keep slim World Cup qualification hopes alive

San Marino may be at the bottom of the 210 soccer nations in the FIFA men’s world rankings, but the microstate still has a chance to qualify for next year’s World Cup.

The mountainous region of north-central Italy, which has a population of fewer than 34,000, has unsurprisingly lost all seven of its World Cup qualifying matches so far, scoring just one goal and conceding 32.

San Marino have won just three of their 219 matches and none of their 169 World Cup or European Championship qualifying matches. All three victories came against Liechtenstein, another European microstate with a population of 40,000, including two in its recent Nations League campaign.

The Nations League was designed by UEFA, European football’s governing body, in 2018 to minimize friendlies (non-competitive matches) and provide countries with meaningful encounters with similarly ranked teams. Nations League results also feed into the qualification process for major tournaments, with the four highest-ranked group winners who did not qualify automatically entering a play-off system.

San Marino’s two wins against Liechtenstein last year, coupled with a draw against Gibraltar, put them top of Nations League Group D.

How do the European World Cup play-offs take place?

Twelve European places are decided by the winners of the 12 qualifying groups, while four nations will qualify in the 16-team UEFA play-offs, which will be played in March 2026. The play-offs will involve 16 teams, who will be divided into four paths of four, with each path containing two semi-finals and a final to determine the four additional nations that qualify for the World Cup.

These 16 teams will include 12 finalists from the group stage as well as the four highest-ranked group winners from the Nations League who did not finish among the top two in their group during World Cup qualifying.

These are the 14 Nations League group winners for 2024-25, based on ranking: Spain, Germany, Portugal, France, England, Norway, Wales, Czechia, Romania, Sweden, North Macedonia, Northern Ireland, Moldova and San Marino.

As it stands, only Wales, Romania, Sweden, Moldova and San Marino are outside the top two in their respective World Cup qualifying groups, meaning San Marino – as the lowest ranked of these five teams – would be the only nation to miss out on a play-off place.

There is one important caveat, however: Romania are part of San Marino’s qualifying group and are currently third, behind second-placed Bosnia-Herzegovina and first-placed Austria. Romania play Bosnia on November 15, before hosting San Marino on the final day, and whether Romania beat Bosnia to finish in the top two – with Austria looking likely to retain top spot – will likely be decided by goal difference.

In this scenario, San Marino’s best interests would be served not only by losing to Romania, but also by losing by as many goals as possible to ensure Romania finishes top two at the expense of Bosnia and therefore creates an opening for the play-offs. After hosting Romania, Bosnia will face first-place Austria in their final qualifying match on November 18, when San Marino takes on Romania. Austria, meanwhile, will face fourth-placed Cyprus on November 15 before their match against Bosnia.

If Bosnia achieves favorable results against Romania and/or Austria, San Marino’s slim chances of qualifying for the World Cup will diminish.

San Marino will also hope that Czechia, Sweden and Northern Ireland maintain their places in the group’s top two to boost their own hopes. North Macedonia and Wales are in the same group, so one of them will miss out on a play-off place, while Moldova have lost all five of their group matches and therefore cannot mathematically qualify from their group.

San Marino can therefore only qualify for the play-offs if one or more countries from Romania, Czechia, Sweden and Northern Ireland miss out on a place among the top two in their group.

The four teams who qualified for the World Cup qualifying play-offs via the Nations League will be in pot four, meaning they will face a team from the pot – the four finalists from the World Cup qualifying group with the highest FIFA world rankings – in their play-off semi-final.

The other semi-final will see a team from pot two, ranked fifth to eighth in the world rankings, host a team from pot three, ranked ninth to 12th.

What do the rules say?

FIFA, world soccer’s governing body, prohibits teams from deliberately losing, which it considers a form of match manipulation punishable by penalties ranging from disqualification to suspension.

Match manipulation is described by FIFA as “the unlawful influence or alteration, directly or by an act or omission, of the progress, result or any other aspect of a football match or competition.”

This can include “deliberate loss of a match or phase of a match” and “deliberate poor performance during a match”.

So far, San Marino has recorded defeats of 0-2 (Cyprus), 1-5 (Romania), 0-1 (Bosnia), 0-4 (Cyprus), 0-6 (Austria), 0-10 (Austria), 0-4 (Cyprus) in their qualifying campaign.

San Marino’s international unrest

While Eritrea, who have not played a match since 2020, are unofficially unranked by FIFA, San Marino have been anchored at the bottom of the world rankings since November 2023.

San Marino’s stadium, with a capacity of 6,600, is often barely half full for matches, with traveling fans sometimes outnumbering the hosts.

San Marino have suffered heavy defeats since their first official match in 1990 – including a 13-0 loss to Germany in 2006 – and have never won a match in qualifying for a major tournament.

It did, however, cause some concern in the major nations, recording what was then the fastest goal in a World Cup qualifying match when Davide Gualtieri scored after eight seconds against England in 1993 before losing 7-1.

It was around the same time that San Marino reached their highest FIFA ranking in their history, 118th, but since then their footballing history has been one of fierce struggle.

San Marino’s friendly victory against Liechtenstein in 2004 was the highlight before their victories against the same nation in last year’s Nations League.