A new disturbance can punctuate the calm of the peak season of the Atlantic »Yale Climate Connections
This is the summit in mid-September of the Atlantic Hurricane season, but we will probably see another week without any land called Storm Landfall. According to the latest substitution post by Michael Lowry, the last 18 days without storm named or tropical depression in the Atlantic are unprecedented: “In the era of modern satellites (since 1966), we have never seen a bleaching during this very active window of 18 days, while four storms named and two hurricanes are formed each season. Hurricane Erin), the least hurricane until September 15 since 2002. ”
However, remember that in 2024, we also experienced an unusual lull in the activity during the first half of September, but the season then delivered two main punishing hurricane: Hélène, who was appointed on September 25, and Milton, who was appointed on October 6.
Invest 92L in the central Atlantic likely to develop this week
There is a disruption of interest in the central Atlantic, appointed Invest 92L by the National Hurricane Center on Monday morning, which should end this sequence later this week. However, predominant management currents will probably keep this system at the sea, the island of Bermuda being the only land area which must be concerned.
Monday morning, 92L was located in the center of the tropical Atlantic halfway between Africa and the Antilles Islands, heading towards the west-northwest at 10-15 MPH. Satellite images have shown that the system became more organized, with a moderate quantity of heavy thunderstorms which had a pronounced rotation. The shear of the light wind and warm ocean temperatures nearly 29 degrees Celsius (84 ° F) were favorable to development, but a little dry air hampered development. With 92L which should meet an atmosphere later later in the week, the models are quite optimistic on this system becoming a storm named this weekend. From their tropical weather prospects of 8:00 a.m., the NHC has been chances of development of 92L and 7 days of development of 40% and 80%, respectively. The following name on the Atlantic Storms list is Gabrielle.
A remarkably low impact season
Compared to the formidable human, financial and infrastructure tolls made by most of the Atlantic Hurricane seasons since 2017, the effects of this year have been surprisingly in casualness. The only named land of Storm so far this season has occurred more than two months ago.
- Tropical Storm Barry scored inside the land near Tampico, Mexico, June 29 with supported winds of 45 MPH. Barry resulted in 8 deaths and around $ 6 million in Mexico damage, and the residual humidity and circulation of the storm introduced intense thunderstorms that produced sudden catastrophic floods in Texas on July 4.
- Tropical Storm Chantal pushed to the ground near Litchfield Beach, in South Carolina, on July 6 with 60 mph higher winds. Six deaths and at least $ 56 million in Northern Carolina Floods were allocated to Chantal while the heavy rain rains pushed through the central and eastern parts of this state. Some precipitation totals have exceeded 10 inches, and several rivers have reached a major flood scene, according to the North Carolina State Climate Office, which noted the similarity of the impacts of the tropical storm of 2024 and the Chantale of 2025.
Until now on six Atlantic storms named, the only hurricane in the group – Category 5 Erin – has made its way through the Northwest Atlantic without reaching the coasts. Erin’s most direct impacts occurred even before being designated as tropical cyclone. After leaving the African coast, Erin’s seed disorders crossed the Cabo Verde islands on August 9, abandoning the torrential rains and triggering floods that caused nine deaths and left two disappeared. A few days later, a man drowned in rough surfing produced by Hurricane Erin along the north coast of the Dominican Republic. The enormous circulation of Erin has brought coastal floods and the erosion of the beach on the east coast of the United States.
Mario obtains a new lease on tropical life
Tropical Storm Mario seemed to have been granted beyond the repair on Saturday evening September 13. By turning from the Mexican coast of the Pacific to around 80 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mario was well below the tropical strength of the storm, its winds higher than only 30 MPH, at 2 am, Sunday. It was at this moment that the National Hurricane Center ranked the storm as post-tower and said: “This is the last opinion of the NHC”. But only nine hours after writing this epitaph, the center had the rare task of rekindling ballots on a dead storm, because the showers and thunderstorms had recognized themselves around Mario and satellite images indicated that tropical winds had returned.
Monday at 11:00 am, Mario was located about 290 miles (470 km) southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, in the direction of West-North West at 12 MPH (19 km / h). The winds supported by the best of Mario were up to 60 mPh (95 km / h), because the storm took advantage of the shear of the light wind below 10 knots, a wet atmosphere (relative humidity of intermediate level around 70%) and sea surface temperatures around 29 degrees Celsius (84 degrees fahrenheit), which is around 1 ° C (1.8 ° F) to the average for the average for the environment. Much cooler waters are just ahead of Mario, falling below 26 degrees Celsius in late Tuesday, and the wind shear will increase clearly, so that the storm should peak today and will become a bass of the rest post-cultical (still) by Wednesday.
Mario’s deep humidity, transported to the northeast by the flow of summer monsoon, will grow in southern California and southwest Arizona later this week, the details still uncertain. Showers and thunderstorms can provide a little essential humidity, but some of the storms could produce gusts with little rain, especially on the edge of the wet thrust. The lightning of these “dry thunderstorms” will increase the risk of fire in the mountains and the buttresses of drought.
Another disturbance in southeast of Mario could develop on his heels, probably taking a track similar parallel to the Côte du Pacific de Mexico. From its tropical weather prospects published at 8 a.m. Hae on Monday, NHC established the chances of development from 2 and 7 days to 20 and 60%, respectively.
Unusually silent in the Western Pacific also
On Monday, there was no storm named in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. The typhoon season has been striking there, where the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) represents only 34% of the average for the season so far. Not a single typhoon has yet reached the equivalent of the category 3 force; On average, five such strong typhoons have occurred now.
According to data dating back to 1945, 2025 is second for the last point of the season for a large category 3 or a stronger typhoon. The record was on September 21, 1974, when Typhon Agnes became a 3 cat with winds of 120 mph (thanks to Sim Aberson for this statistics). Recent races of the GFS and the European model show the potential of a major typhoon to turn in the waters a few hundred kilometers south of Japan at the beginning of next week, we could therefore approach the beat of the record of the last Cat 3 in the basin.
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