Some supporters of Trump regret their 2024 votes on Trump processing of Epstein files, by new survey
This article is part of TPM Cafe, the House of TPM for the opinion and the analysis of the news. It was initially published during the conversation.
Has President Donald Trump survived the latest and most serious controversy storm of controversy on the Epstein scandal? Or does management by the Trump administration have the disclosure of information concerning the continuation of Jeffrey Epstein, a sexual trafficker for condemned children and the former friend of Trump, injured the president?
A number of journalists, stressing the recent public opinion polls, said the scandal had injured Trump. Others have argued that the public has greatly evolved and that Epstein’s controversy no longer presents political responsibility for Trump.
But these two conclusions are based on a limited survey on the controversy of Epstein and can therefore be premature.
Our recent national survey of the University of Massachusetts includes particularly detailed questions about Epstein’s controversy and attitudes towards Trump, and thus provides new information on how the controversy has assigned public support to Trump.
We note that Trump management of Epstein’s controversy has done significant damage to its position, especially among its main supporters.
Trump “ grie up the question ”
The Americans pay particular attention to the prolonged controversy of Epstein. Our survey notes that 3 respondents in 4 heard, read or seen “a lot” or “some” on Epstein.
In addition, most believe that Trump gropes the question.
Seven out of 10 Americans believe that Trump manages the question “not well”. This includes the pluralities of Trump’s most loyal supporters, 43% of Republicans, 43% of conservatives and 47% of those who voted for him in 2024.
When we perceive the 47% of Trump 2024 voters who disapprove of Trump management from Epstein’s controversy, we find important cracks in Maga’s facade. Among the members of this group, 28% now disapprove of Trump as president.
When we take into account demographic data, ideology, partisanry and economy assessments, the disapproval of Trump management of the Liberation of Epstein files is always associated with an increase in Trump’s disapproval.
Voting regret
More importantly, we note that among Trump voters in 2024, negative opinions of Trump management of Epstein files are associated with an increased desire to make a different choice if the elections of 2024 could be a recovery.
More specifically, among Trump’s voters who believe that the president has poorly managed the release of Epstein files, more than a quarter – 26% – indicate that they would not vote for Trump if they had the opportunity to vote again in the 2024 elections.
Although there are no electoral tasks, it is clear that the Epstein scandal injured Trump among its basis for voters.
Many can occur by mid-term elections in November 2026, of course.
But if Trump does not satisfy his political base, perceptions among Trump’s voters that he has poorly managed the controversy could reduce enthusiasm and participation in the elections. Even if the part of the Republicans alienated by the controversy of Epstein is relatively low, this could injure the Republicans in close competitions.
With over a year to go, the facts on the field will probably change. But to date, the controversy on the publication of Epstein files remains relevant. The question of whether the president answers in a way that satisfies his voters is a question that could have important political consequences.
