Hot and dry summers bring new risks “over fire” to British cities

The Cities of the United Kingdom are faced with a growing threat of an emerging phenomenon called “fire planes” as temperatures increase due to climate change, scientists warned.

The term, invented by researchers from the Imperial College London, describes several fires of urban forests triggered by long periods of hot and dry time.

The warning comes as the firefighters fought against three fires from separate moors in London and a dramatic refining fire in the seat of Arthur in Edinburgh in recent days, because the last heat wave of this summer has left the vegetation through the two dangerously dry capitals.

These fires, although now contained, highlight the growing vulnerability of urban areas for forest fires – a risk that was once considered to be largely rural.

Guillermo Rein, professor of fire sciences at the Imperial College in London, worked alongside the London Fire Brigade to help predict when the conditions are ripe for a “wave of fire”.

Based on current forecasts, he thinks London could be in danger again this weekend.

The deputy commissioner of the London firefighters, Tom Goodall, said that he welcomes any research that helps predict the probability that forest fires occur.

Service is “ready to combat the threat of forest fires to help protect the communities and green spaces in London,” he added.

Professor Rein’s research finds that after ten consecutive days of very dry time, the vegetation becomes so dried up in large areas that the probability of multiple fires turned on simultaneously increased suddenly.

Using detailed data on the London Fire Brigade incidents dating from 2009, combined with weather registers, the team has identified key factors that cause forest epidemics in London.

One of the most important is a measure of the amount of humidity that the atmosphere can extract from the earth, known as the “steam pressure deficit”.

The higher the deficit, the more the vegetation becomes dry, the easier it ignites.

“The vegetation does not only become a little more flammable,” said Professor Rein, “he becomes much more flammable.”

“Once the humidity content of the vegetation falls below a certain threshold, even a small spark can cause a fire to spread rapid,” he added.

Most fires are triggered by humans, whether accidentally or deliberately. But a world of warming creates conditions more conducive to these flames.

“Climate change brings more heat waves and longer drought spells,” said Professor Rein.

“These conditions dry fuel and increase the risk of forest fires. This risk is much higher now than even ten years ago.”

While the researchers focused on London, the concerns are widespread.

“I am worried about all the other British cities and other cities in northern European in particular because climate change seems to make green vegetation which was not very flammable very flammable,” said professor kidney.

“And these places have no history of dealing with forest fires, so they do not have as much institutional experience as the cities of the southern continent.”

Urban environments like London, with their abundance of parks and green spaces bordering residential areas, are particularly sensitive.

The concept of a “wave of fire” is intended to capture the unique danger posed when several fires immediately burst into densely populated areas, which has the potential to submerge emergency services and threaten houses and infrastructure.

This occurred in the summer of 2022 when British temperatures exceeded 40 ° C for the first time.

On July 19, 2022, London firefighters (LFB) had its busiest day since the Second World War.

The fires broke out simultaneously in the city, including a devastating fire in Wennington, in eastern London, which destroyed 37 buildings, five cars, and forced the evacuation of 88 houses.

Blake Betts, an LFB borough commander, has a large experience of forest fires in urban areas.

It emphasizes the serious threat they represent, especially when open spaces are adjacent to residential properties.

“The potential for fires to spread in houses is very real,” said CDR Betts.

“We see more extreme weather events, and that is why the London Fire-Brigade has adopted a much more proactive approach.”

To meet this growing challenge, the LFB says it has invested in new technologies and equipment.

Drones are now playing an essential role in the response of forest fires, offering real -time air views that help commanders to map fire and direct resources where they are most necessary.

“The view of the drone bird gives us a huge boost in the awareness of the situation,” said a spokesperson for the LFB.

“This allows us to target our efforts where the risk for life and goods is the greatest.”

In addition to drones, the brigade has introduced all-terrain vehicles capable of reaching fires on difficult terrain, such as Landes and Prairies.

These vehicles can be used to create fires – using water to dip the soil to prevent fires from spreading further.

Researchers from the Imperial College London argue that the current current definition of the Met Office of a heat wave does not adequately reflect the risk of forest fire in urban areas.

They propose that he adopts the term “swallowing fire” to report extremely danger periods of fires in cities – a concept that they hope to shed light on future public security strategies and planning climate resilience.

The Met Office was invited to comments.