The “movie star question” has been the focus of many in Hollywood in recent years: do “movie stars” really still exist? Can tying up an incredibly popular actor actually generate significant ticket sales, or are those days gone?
This year has offered several interesting data points on this specific topic, with new films from Scarlett Johansson, Brad Pitt, Tom Cruise, Julia Roberts, Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson released in theaters, as well as new films from hot new stars like Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell.
So what’s the verdict? As always, it’s a mixed bag: some data suggests that some of the aforementioned actors still have enough juice to draw people to the movies, but there’s also plenty of evidence that a movie star can no longer open a movie single-handedly. Especially a drama.
But the data was sufficient to yield some important lessons. As we close the book on 2025, here’s what we can say for sure about movie stars based on this year’s box office.
A movie star + IP is the winning formula
The year’s biggest domestic box office hits paired an intellectual property with a recognizable – and bankable – star. “A Minecraft Movie” leaned heavily on Jack Black ($424 million domestic), “Jurassic World: Rebirth” was fronted by Scarlett Johansson ($340 million), “Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning” brought back Tom Cruise one last time ($191 million) and “F1: The Movie” put Brad Pitt in charge ($190 million).
Verve’s agent, David Boxerbaum, told TheWrap that mixing classic intellectual property with smaller, original projects is key to movie star viability.
“I think it’s really smart,” he said. “You might create a few originals, but then you create a huge piece of branded intellectual property and that takes you right back into the zeitgeist.”
This is not the case always work – “Tron: Ares” was one of the year’s biggest failures with $73 million domestic, but that film’s performance called into question the viability of the “Tron” franchise and Jared Leto.
Conversely, Johansson is one of the most profitable stars when it comes to mixing intellectual property with a respected name.
More than 70% of American adults say they are Johansson fans, or about 118 million people, according to Greenlight Analytics data shared with TheWrap. Its popularity, coupled with the “Jurassic” franchise, resulted in 84% awareness for “Rebirth,” higher than “Jurassic World: Dominion” (68%), “Avatar: The Way of Water” (75%) and even “Spider-Man: No Way Home” (76%).
It’s no surprise that the actress has already been tapped to front a new “Exorcist” film for Universal and filmmaker Mike Flanagan and is in talks to move from Marvel to DC with a key role in “The Batman: Part II.” And in between all that, she released her first film, “Eleanor the Great,” this year. There is this mixture.
Even the busiest publicity tour cannot attract a drama’s audience
Celebrity culture is alive and well, but viral social media videos of co-stars cuddling or being funny don’t necessarily translate to butts in seats — especially for drama.
Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson flooded social media and late-night shows in the lead-up to the release of their marital drama “Die, My Love,” and despite the fact that their off-screen chemistry was lively, the film bombed opening weekend with just $2.6 million from nearly 2,000 screens. The domestic total for Mubi’s release stands at $5.6 million.
Awareness of the film never exceeded 16% over eight weeks, according to data from Greenlight Analytics. No amount of YouTube videos of Lawrence and Pattinson having a blast could convince general consumers to buy a ticket to a very serious movie about postpartum depression and the collapse of a marriage.
Even among those who were interested in seeing “Die My Love,” a major gap emerged between theatrical intent (29%) and willingness to pay (40%), according to Greenlight data.
On the other hand, Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt’s A24 sports drama, “The Smashing Machine,” achieved massive awareness — 93% — but only 16% of people in the know planned to see it opening weekend. The film only grossed $11 million domestically, a far cry from the blockbusters Johnson is accustomed to opening.
And Amazon MGM’s college drama, “After the Hunt,” tanked with just $3 million domestic despite mixing movie stars both classic (Julia Roberts) and new (Andrew Garfield).
Even Sydney Sweeney, the hottest celebrity of all trends in 2025, exploded at the box office with one of the lowest opening weekends for a wide release ever for her boxing biopic “Christy.” The Black Bear Pictures film opened to just $1.3 million and its domestic total never exceeded $2 million. Ouch.
It seems the key to a drama’s box office success is adding a genre element. Which brings us to…
The horror is enhanced by superb performances
Horror had a great year in 2025, but films like “Sinners” and “Weapons” succeeded in part thanks to the buzz created by stellar performances.
With Warner Bros. “Sinners” ($280 million domestic), Michael B. Jordan’s two leads offered a big hook. For ‘Guns’ ($152 million domestic), Amy Madigan’s terrifying turn as Aunt Gladys sparked Oscar buzz And created a new Halloween costume.
But both films also had strong conceptual appeal. Warner Bros. delved into the mystery surrounding the central premises of “Weapons” and “Sinners,” without revealing too much in the marketing campaigns. The buzz after their strong opening weekends fueled consistent performances.
“The public loves discovery,” Boxerbaum said. “The public loves being told about a campaign in hushed tones: ‘Have you seen it? Have you heard about it? Have you watched it?’ This is usually what really gets people out of their seats.
Lower Tier Marvel Characters Are No Longer Enough
Whether superhero fatigue is real or not, the Marvel Cinematic Universe is in a rut. This year’s three Marvel films – “Captain America: Brave New World” ($200 million domestic), “Thunderbolts” ($190 million) and “Fantastic Four: First Steps” ($274 million) – all underperformed the franchise’s previous peak of more than $500 million in revenue, despite containing each film with recognizable stars.
“Captain America” had Harrison Ford, “Thunderbolts” tapped into the fandom of Florence Pugh and David Harbor and “Fantastic Four” starred the Internet’s boyfriend Pedro Pascal. And yet, every film has failed.
Release week awareness for “Thunderbolts,” which used the lesser-known characters from all three films, was 54%, well below its MCU counterparts (“Fantastic Four” at 77%, “Deadpool & Wolverine” at 69%).
IP is the biggest movie star of them all
You knew this was going to happen. The biggest movie star of 2025? IP.
Look no further than the success of “A Minecraft Movie” ($424 million domestic), “Lilo & Stitch” ($424 million), “How to Train Your Dragon” ($263 million) and, of course, “Superman” ($354 million). Each of these films was primarily fueled by recognizable intellectual property, and it worked: Awareness for all four films exceeded 74%, with Disney’s live-action “Lilo & Stitch” topping 78%.
Warner Bros.’ “Superman” and DC is perhaps the most interesting use case here. Before its release, there was talk of the film’s lack of star power. But the promise of a colorful new take on an iconic character was enough to draw audiences in and endear them to the relatively unknown David Corenswet.
Men over 35 were the strongest demo for “Superman,” according to data from Greenlight Analytics, and while the film wasn’t as four-quadrant as Warner Bros.’ hoped, its massive notoriety (77%) and its supercharged demo pushed the film towards success. DC is hoping for similar but different results with next year’s “Supergirl,” starring Milly Alcock, for which they will likely attempt to activate the female demographic.
