“The most dangerous moment since 1995”: Renegade Dodik leaves Bosnia in limbo | Bosnia and Herzegovina

TThe members of the Hungarian Elite Police Unit crossed the border of civilian clothes, only putting their uniforms once they have reached their destination. After their arrival in Banja Luka, the capital of the Serbian half of Bosnia and Herzegovina, they placed green fatigue with a Serbian police carrying hoods.

Officially, the Hungarians had come as coaches, but the mission was only announced after their presence was reported in the local press. The allegedly sovereign Bosnian government government had not been informed that up to 300 paramilitary police from another country would cross the border.

The timing was essential: the Hungarians had arrived on the eve of a pivotal meeting, potentially explosive. On February 26, Milorad Dodik, President of the Republic led by the Serbian, Republika Srpska, was sentenced to one year in prison and a ban of six years of ban on separatist actions.

Dodik, who has managed the entity since 2006, was sentenced for having challenged the envoy of the international community to Bosnia, a position created to ensure the implementation of the Dayton Agreement which ended the 1992-1995 war. Technically, the supreme power of the country, the high representative has the power to impose or cancel the laws and the bag officials.

Responding to the decision, Dodik told his supporters that condemnation was “absurd” and called them to “be cheerful”. He then declared that Bosnia and Herzegovina had “ceased to exist” and, in an apparent decision to secession, local laws were adopted according to which the prohibition of the presence of the national police or judicial officials on the soil Republika Srpska. Dodik insisted that he would not appeal from the verdict because he did not recognize the court of the court, but noted that he could not prevent his lawyers. Lawyers have done so and the call should be heard in the coming months.

Dodik’s verdict and response represented a time when Bosnian’s long -term dysfunction has had a dangerous crisis, which could divide Europe. This has shown that in pressure, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán actively ranked with Vladimir Putin and allies such as Dodik rather than Brussels. For almost two decades of power, Dodik was a frequent Moscow visitor, appearing Tuesday for the third time since March.

The authoritarian president of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, also regularly supports Dodik in his confrontation with Sarajevo and Western capital. Vučić went to Banja Luka in solidarity, after what he called the “illegal and anti-democratic” verdict of the court. The two men met again in Belgrade on Monday, while Dodik was heading for Moscow.

The decision and its consequences also showed that, 30 years after the conflict in Bosnia, killed more than 100,000 people, its underlying divisions are far from resolved. Few expect a return to war, but the country remains a flash point in the heart of Europe with a potential for conflicts and violence.

The war which was finished by the Dayton agreements was a horrible conflict that brought the genocide to the heart of Europe. The agreements will be commemorated this week by a meeting of NATO in the city of Ohio which gave its name to peace. But while Dayton stopped the murder, he also simply frozen the conflict by dividing the country into two halves: Republika Srpska and a federation of Muslims Bosnia (Bosniana) and Croats.

Dayton criticisms denounced him as a reward for ethnic cleaning. The bandage that has pulled the bloodshed hardened over the decades in a force truck that prevented Bosnia from turning into a functional state. It has established a system of governance on several levels which favored nationalist parties, paralysis and corruption.

Since coming to power, Dodik, the president of the Republika Srpska and the head of the independent social democrats alliance, has blocked European reforms and integration with threats of secession and a return to the conflict. But there are signs that he becomes politically more fragile: Bosnian officials and foreign diplomats in Sarajevo have confirmed that reports in the Hungarian press who said that the paramilitaries of Orbán had been in Banja Luka to extract Dodik if he found himself stuck and should run for that.

This has not yet happened, but experts say that Dodik’s departure remains a strong possibility: in recent months, the family of the Serbian leader has approached a senior west official to negotiate terms for his departure, was informed the Guardian.

But it is not a fatality that Dodik will choose exile. Instead, he can continue to try to challenge the penalty – and the international community – and hang on to an office behind a shield of his paramilitary police. For the country itself, limbo is full of risks. “This is very clearly the most dangerous moment in Bosnia since 1995,” said Jasmin Mujanović, Bosnian political analyst. “This is a crisis that can only end with its arrest or if it finally chooses to flee.”

There was an attempted detention of Dodik in April, after the adoption of legislation deemed extreme even according to its standards. The Bosnian prosecutor published arrest mandates for him and two other Serbian officials, and six weeks later, there was a tense confrontation at East Sarajevo, when the Serbian police prevented the agents of the Bosnia State Protection and Protection Agency (SIPA) from arresting Dodik. SIPA agents withdrew.

The appeal judgment on the February verdict is due by the end of the year, but it is generally expected by the summer. If he confirms the condemnation and sentence of Dodik, the prohibition of being in force, potentially triggering new presidential elections to Republika Srpska and the possible victory of an opposition coalition prepared to collaborate against ethnic borders and to relaunch the offer of Bosnian EU members.

This could also mean that another, more determined attempt can be made to stop it, and Bosnia could ask the small European force for peacekeeping, Eufor, for at least one demonstration of support.

“The only mystery is to know if Dodik will accept the decision and leave its premises in the presidential palace,” said Igor Crnadak, former Minister of Bosnia Foreign Affairs and main member of the Democratic Progress Party, which is part of the Serbian opposition block. “Or will he refuse to leave his position? I don’t think someone knows what he will do.”

He added: “I think Bosnia is at the turn.”

Christian Schmidt, a former German minister as a representative of a current high level, insists that, for the moment, it is a political crisis rather than security.

“How do we solve this kind of non-climbing challenge? I think it is something that needs a lot of diplomacy and behind the scenes at the moment,” said Schmidt, but he added: “I do not see that Mr. Dodik meets the requirements of a member responsible for political leadership in this country.”

Last week, Schmidt reported the United Nations Security Council on the aggravation situation and called on international engagement to prevent a disaster. The signs of the meeting of the council were not encouraging. The Russian delegation left the room while Schmidt spoke, and the Serbian member currently holding the president of the Bosnian trilateral presidency of Bosnia, željka Cvijanović, stole for the opportunity to try to turn the paintings on Schmidt, questioning his legitimacy and the opportunity to “dictate” and “repression”.

At the EU level, the action was also limited. Hungary has so far blocked sanctions against Dodik, with the help of Croatia.

The financial pressure on Dodik rises, however. The United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Austria, Poland and Lithuania have all taken individual punitive measures against it. His hope that the restoration of Trump in power in Washington would result in a rapid suspension of American sanctions has not been filled; The new administration has little interest in Bosnia.

If his call fails, Crnadak suggested that he follow the same advice as Dodik gave to the Bosnian Serbian warlords when they were on the run of the war crimes in The Hague: abandon yourself.

“What you are doing now is directly affecting the Serbs and the Srpska Republika,” said Crnadak. “If you like your people, you will go to court and you beat for your innocence there.”