2026 Oscars best predictions of the director

Variety The award circuits section is the house of all reward news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following elements: the official predictions of the next Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, organized by Variety Clayton Davis, editor -in -chief of the seniors. The prediction pages reflect the current race classification and do not reflect personal preferences for an individual competitor. Like other formal (and informal) surveys suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to a change depending on buzz and events. The predictions are updated every Thursday.

Oscar comment best director (updated on September 18, 2025): For the first time in the history of the Oscars, two women who have already won the best director could find themselves head-to-head for a second statuette.

Chloé Zhao, who marked the story with his victory for “Nomadland” (2020) is back in the race with “Hamnet”, a poetic adaptation of the novel by Maggie O’farrell on sorrow, art and heritage. Meanwhile, Kathryn Bigelow, the first woman to have won the Oscar for the realization of “The Hurt Locker” (2009) returned with the explosive political thriller “A House of Dynamite”, an 18 -minute countdown with the nervous jangle centered on a nuclear threat.

If the two women disembark the appointments, the 98th Academy Awards could mark a rare and revolutionary dead end: two previous winners in a category which for almost a century was dominated exclusively by men.

Zhao’s “Hamnet”, fresh out of the Choice Prize for the Toronto International Film Festival, acquired a jump with the precursor status. This honor has historically served as a reliable predictor for the best recognition of the film and the director, with recent winners like “Green Book” in Oscar Glory. Zhao is also reinforced by heavy goods vehicles like the winners of the Sam Mendes Oscars and Steven Spielberg, who are part of the productive team.

Bigelow, on the other hand, has reaffirmed as one of the main filmmakers in tension after almost a decade of the screen. “A House of Dynamite” was presented in first criticisms ravies for its rhythm and its white set and its set led by Idris Elba and Rebecca Ferguson.

Having the two women hovering is the imminent shadow of Paul Thomas Anderson, the venerated author whose new film, “One Battle After Oll,” put on some of the most passionate criticisms of his career. The action-acting comedy, featuring Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, Chase Infiniti, Regina Hall and Teyana Taylor, is currently 97% on Rotten Tomatoes and has an almost perfect 96 on Metacritic. Some Hollywood supporters from Anderson are already hitting the strong drum for the filmmaker, including Spielberg, who was very vocal in his praise, and is by chance a producer of Zhao, who is also in the race.

Despite 11 Oscar nominations through his filmography, Anderson has not yet obtained a victory. Will the “late” story work for the author similar to the successful campaign for Martin Scorsese almost 20 years ago with “The Departed” (2006)?

The season is not just about returning the late winners and legends. Ryan Coogler, surfing on the wave of praise of criticism and the success of the box office for “sinners”, is always considered a formidable candidate. The Marvel alum has made the story when “Black Panther” (2018) became the first film of superhero nominated for the best film. Later, he was nominated as a producer of “Judas and the Black Messie” (2021). Now, industry observers are considering if Coogler could break another ceiling and become the first black director to win the Academy Award.

However, the director’s best race is rarely without surprises. The next love story of Craig Brewer “Song Sung Blue”, which takes place at the Film Festival AFI, could draw attention to voters and the consumer public. At the same time, “Marty Supreme” by Josh Safdie de A24, who features Timothee Chalamet could sneak into the conversation.

Benny Safdie, Josh’s brother, also made his solo debut with “The Smashing Machine” with Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt, who already has a large -scale distinction from Venice, where he won the Silver Lion to direct.

Let’s see how the race takes shape.

Note: all the titles, exit dates, studios and category classifications listed are likely to change.