2025 NBA finals: Pacers-Thunder aberrant statistics before match 3

Two matches in the NBA 2025 final, the Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma City Thunder are all square in a victory each, and the script did not deviate much expectations.

For example, we knew that if the pacers were going to steal one on the Thunder’s field, Indiana would probably need one of the same magic that transported it throughout this race in the playoffs. And indeed, match 1 gave thunder a taste of the same medication that Indiana fed the Milwaukee Bucks, the Cleveland Cavaliers and the New York Knicks earlier in the playoffs. But then, as was usually the case when he came out of a loss in the playoffs, Oklahoma City has fallen off his higher talent in match 2, withdrawing early and never leaving the Pacers in the competition.

So yes, the overall arc of the series might seem familiar. But that does not mean that the figures were commonplace. From Pacers reversals to Thunder’s free throws, opening matches have produced statistical aberrant values ​​compared to how these teams usually play. This is important to consider, because one of the best ways to understand what a team is doing well – or where it escapes – is to compare each statistical category to the basic line which obtained it here in the first place.

In this spirit, I seized the game newspapers (in conventional and advanced measures) for the teams and calculated their centile notes for matches 1 and 2 compared to all matches played in the regular season and in playoffs.

The categories which, on average, have deflected the most during the final of the full season standards are the areas where the teams play the most different, for good and for bad.

Depending on this measure, here are the five largest aberrant values ​​in the series so far, in terms of how each team behaves in relation to … well, itself.

Jump towards an aberrant value:
2 points | Reversals / flights
Free throws | Score | Aid

2 -point Indiana

Throughout the season so far, the Pacers have reached an average of 30.0 2 points per match on 56.6% shooting inside the arc; They also ranked among the top five in the NBA in both categories during the regular season. And individually, Pascal Siakam ranked 18th in the league with 6.2 Made 2s per match, leading an attack on the Indiana which depended less than 3 points than the typical team during the 2024-25 campaign.

During these finals, however, the Pacers turned into a completely different team, with an average of 22.0 made 2 points per game – the Siakam figure falling at 4.0 per game – with 51.8% shooting, which are both among the lowest production of the team out of 2 s of the season.

At the same time, Indiana displays an average of 39.5 3-point tests per game, taking more than 48% of its shots beyond the arc (compared to the seasonal averages of 35.5 and 40%). The Pacers spent a lot of time hanging around in the two games, which explains part of the quarter work, but they were also eliminated from their usual shooting mixture in this series.

Indiana reversals / stolen from opponents

On a related note, the Indiana did not do so much shots on the ground because it overthrew the ball so much. Almost 18% of the Pacers goods ended with a gift, according to the basketball reference, which is much higher than their rate of 11.9% compared to the season as a whole. And their 25 reversals in match 1 were the most by a team that has won a final match since 1977.

Oklahoma City flights, in particular, have been among the largest aberrant values ​​of statistics so far. Its 14 dishes to take in match 1 were tied for the second more than most of the Indiana granted in a match all the season (and easily the highest of the playoffs). And the 12.0 OKC interceptions per game in matches 1 and 2 overshadowed the usual average of the pacers of 7.3 SPG authorized.

The Thunder is undoubtedly the best defensive machine for forcing the turnover in the league, but the Pacers were one of the best to resist reversals in attack.

Something had to give, and that something promotes Oklahoma City at the moment.

Oklahoma City Free throws

While some Thunder members have the reputation of reaching the line unusually often, the Oklahoma City offensive was not among the most dedicating of the league during the regular season, ranking 24th in free throws per range by the field and on average only 16.7 free throws per game (19th the most).

In the final, however, Oklahoma City lives on the line, with an average of free throws per game with an FTS ratio by FGA which is 51% higher than during the season as a whole.

The 29 brands of Thunder from the line of fault in match 2 were the third most that they made in a single match all season and were also tied for the fourth most of Indiana in a match. The Pacers are dirty more than their usual average, but the Thunder has also helped by making 87.7% of their free throws in the series, these finals featuring two of their five most precise outings of the line in the whole series. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander alone represented 36% of Thunder’s freelands in a team, in a way improving his level of free throwing league by the regular season.

Indiana Score

Despite the improvement of balance this season, the Pacers are always an offensive dependent team, ranking n ° 9 in offensive efficiency during the regular season – compared to the n ° 13 on the defense – and n ° 2 in attack during the playoffs. Throughout the season, Indiana is on average 117.2 points per game, but in the final so far, this number has increased to 109.0. It is the only time in the playoffs that the Pacers were held at 111 points or less in each of the first two games in a series.

Nor can it be explained by a slower rhythm; The match of 99.8 possessions per final is slightly higher than the average for the Pacers season of 99.6. But it can be explained by some of the factors mentioned above: exchange more than 2 for 3s and (in particular) the reversal of the ball.

Be that as it may, the net profit is less points, especially for key pacers. After an average of 39.9 points combined per game in the playoffs before the final, Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton have only 32.5 ppg together in the final.

The two teams help

An early trend that unifies the two offenses is that their assistance figures are decreasing compared to their usual averages.

Using their typical numbers of the season as a whole, the combined passes of Indiana and Oklahoma City would appear to reach a total of 55.5 per game, with 29.0 from the Pacers and 26.5 from the Thunder. But during the first two final games, they are down a combined average of 44.5 APG, the Indiana falling at 25.5 and Oklahoma City falling to 19.0.

These are a fairly large pair of drops, although they occur for various reasons.

For Indiana, its aid rate per basket made it really disappeared up In the final (from 66.9% to 67.3%), but that only makes far fewer buckets than usual (38.0 FG / game against a typical 43.3 average).

Oklahoma City, however, truly propagates the ball less than usual, with an assistance rate of 47.9% in matches 1 and 2 (including 33.3% in match 1, its lowest share of all season) compared to an average of one season of 59.7%. Gilgeous-Alexander has been reduced by three assists in match 1 to eight in match 2, but the Pacers will probably seek to continue to deny the movement of the Thunder’s ball from here.