Many investors are increasingly bullish on electric vehicle actions (EV), but it may not be for the reason you think. Over the past years, they have concentrated on the opportunity to grow sales of electric vehicles, which still represent less than 15% of the total vehicle sales in the United States, however, the current media threshing has to do with robotaxis. Some experts believe that they could ultimately become a global opportunity of 5 billions to 10 billions of dollars.
Manufacturers EV love Tesla(Nasdaq: tsla) And Lucid group(Nasdaq: Lcid) invest massively in robotaxis. Competitors like Rivian Automotive(Nasdaq: Rivn)In the meantime, it seems simply focused on the creation of new models on the market – at least for the moment.
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After years of anticipation fueled by the repeated promises of Elon Musk, Tesla finally launched its Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, earlier this year. Shortly after, Lucid announced that he would associate a partnership with Uber technologies On a Robotaxi company.
Uber would have and exploited Robotaxie, and Lucid would provide more than 20,000 vehicles over the next six years to feed the service. The market responded positively to the two announcements, sending higher Tesla and Lucid actions in the days that followed.
The age of robotaxis is finally on our doors. But there are two other things you should know before you excite yourself too much.
Firstly, the scaling of these Robotaxi services will take many years. Musk predicted that more than a million teslas led independently will wander on the American streets by the end of next year. But it was not a reliable source of predictions concerning autonomous vehicles. In 2015, he planned that Tesla would reach “complete autonomy in about two years”. Ten years later, the company’s robotaxis in Austin still has no complete autonomy.
The Robotaxes market could be enormous in the long term, but do not expect enormous adoption fluctuations in the coming years. Technology is just not there yet. The regulations are also far behind what is necessary for a global deployment to occur.
Second, it seems that Robotaxi stocks like Tesla and Lucid already have an integrated bonus at their prices. Despite the drop in income this year, Tesla shares are negotiated to high sales of 15.4 times. Lucid, on the other hand, is negotiated at 7.6 times sales.
Compare these evaluations to Rivian – a stock that does not yet have a clear Robotaxi account and which is negotiated at only 3.6 times the sales – and it becomes clear that the market can already attribute a significant value to the potential of Robotaxi de Tesla and Lucid.
Source: Getty Images
Don’t be mistaken: the Robotax market is very exciting. But this start of the game – with as many questions surrounding how fast the deployment will be fast and which companies will finally benefit from it – I am not sure that actions like Tesla or Lucid are worth the initial premium. Instead, I could stick to a manufacturer of electric vehicles like Rivian who continues to run on his basic strategy, who should start to bear fruit by the beginning of next year.
Rivian essentially copies the way from Tesla to growth. He started by building luxury cars which, although expensive, presented the company’s capacities and created a quality reputation among buyers. The company then quickly focused on scaling more affordable vehicles.
Today, more than 90% of Tesla vehicle revenues come from its two affordable models: model 3 and model Y. Almost 70% of potential car buyers plan to spend less than $ 50,000 for their next vehicle. It is therefore not surprising that the supply of models under this price is a crucial step towards mass growth.
At the beginning of next year, Rivian plans to start the production of three new models, all at the price of less than $ 50,000. Lucid is still years to reach this growth catalyst. Tesla, on the other hand, has not introduced new affordable model for over five years.
Trading to a reduced evaluation despite the prospects for pink growth for 2026 and 2027, Rivian remains my highest growth stock for the coming year. Tesla and Lucid have a promising future, but their high assessments make actions much less attractive.
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Ryan Vanzo has no position in the actions mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions and recommends Tesla and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has a policy of disclosure.
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